Tim Wilson has always been a sort-of ‘third man’ to the Angus Taylor and Andrew Hastie’s leadership tussle.
As the Shadow Treasurer, he is the name thrown into the mix to keep headlines fresh even when journalists know he is in no danger of becoming Leader of the Opposition.
Frankly, many were surprised he made it back into the room at the last election.
To say Wilson’s return to Parliament was miraculous is to undersell his political near-death experience with the Teals after a partial recount saw him take Goldstein from Zoe Daniel with a buffer of … 175 votes.
While it is true that Wilson remains the only Liberal to beat a Teal, the victory was narrow and came on the back of a previous loss. This is more of a lucky scrape than a qualification. It is far from clear the electorate has changed its mind about Teal politics. We will have a better view after the Victorian state election in November.
As a general rule, MPs whose futures remain balanced on a knife-edge don’t normally fantasise about the leadership, but these are unusual times.
We have a National Leader and potential Deputy Prime Minister Matt Canavan sitting in the Senate while being shoved down to the #2 position on his own Queensland Senate ticket. Angus Taylor remains head of the party while enduring some of the worst polls on record. And there’s a semi-serious discussion about Pauline Hanson becoming the next Prime Minister. Laugh at that last one if you like, Pauline certainly does, but her kingmaker power is likely real if One Nation remains roughly where they are in the polls.
With this in mind, why shouldn’t Tim Wilson try his luck?
Technically – go for it.
Practically? Wilson is a slick city moderate in the middle of a conservative civil war.
To be fair, Wilson has distanced himself from the term ‘moderate’, saying, ‘There is nothing moderate about my liberalism.’
However, ‘moderate’ is less a strict policy definition and more of a factional ‘vibe’. Some voters might argue his views on Net Zero, decarbonisation, and climate change automatically nudge him into the moderate camp.
Leadership talk is valid.
Angus Taylor is a long way from solid ground. The decision to lash out at One Nation, with high-profile Liberals joining the frenzied media attack, clawed a few percentage points off the Orange Wall.
Is the shift permanent? Probably not.
All the reasons voters left the Liberals remain, and the initial promise to ditch Net Zero (which drew a cheer from the crowd watching Karl Stefanovic’s podcast) is collapsing under questions about the Paris Agreement and whether or not they will close things like the Climate Change Authority.
As for Andrew Hastie as a replacement leader, some feel that ship has sailed. Realistically, going from Turnbull to Morrison to Dutton to Ley to Taylor to Hastie in quick succession could look like incoherency.
Knowing what to do with Liberal politics is a real challenge.
Polling numbers aside, the leader is not the problem. Instead, the public have realised the Liberals will not enact populist policies for a variety of baked-in reasons that come with the deep roots and wide branches of an ancient party. Liberal leaders can allude to them. Promise bits and pieces. But meaningful, disruptive change is probably not possible.
If the Liberals are not prepared to fully upset the system, they will not survive as a party. It’s as simple as that.
Don’t expect the party to admit this. It is more likely they’ll go leader hunting or complain about costing policies.
If they were to seek out a new leader, a man like Wilson is the most likely bait to lure Teal voters. Unfortunately, there is no indication Teal voters are disaffected or wavering. Until someone takes a sledgehammer to the false narrative of climate change and the Net Zero saviour complex – or until the Teal voters go broke – they remain an unfaithful voting diaspora.
Worse, their folly of climate-related politics has brought them into close proximity with the whole Marxist post-modern smorgasbord, and many have become socially radicalised into near-Green levels of delusion.
Good luck having a rational conversation with an older white liberal woman wearing a diamond-studded rainbow keffiyeh who thinks Palestine is the safest place for her queer neurodivergent friends. Or the strict vegan soy-latte animal rights activist who supports Halal slaughter on religious solidarity grounds. And the voter who thinks Christianity is the most oppressive patriarchy, like, evah, while viewing the burqa as a supreme tool of female empowerment.
There is nothing you can offer these people short of the total ruin of Western Civilisation and even then, they’ll turn around and ask if there is a solar panel program in the post-apocalyptic economy.
If not the Teals, which voters would Wilson theoretically target?
The bulk of the Liberal (and National) base has wandered over to One Nation. Of all the options on the table, Wilson is probably one of the least capable of gathering these voters back to the party. Turnbull would have more success.
Why are we talking about Tim Wilson?
There have been hints.
Not the slick social media videos, or even otherwise inexplicable stunts like breaking into song. I am referring to a few articles lately that twitched my eyebrow. It was the full spread in Good Weekend tipped me into making a comment.
Tim Wilson’s return to Federal Parliament was viewed by many as miraculous. But is he really the next Liberal messiah? It’s subheading asks.
Messiah? I guess that’s the sort of language you invite if you insist on calling your party a ‘broad church’.
The article is full of things I wish I didn’t know about Wilson, including his Tigger quotes and blue socks. It is one thing to be eccentric, it is another to hang a lantern on the behaviour in the hope of building character.
‘I am idiosyncratic – I do accept that. I openly accept I am unconventional,’ Wilson apparently said.
Okay, but are you ready to lead a reformation? And if you are, what does the Liberal church look like when you’re finished…
The article itself is peppered with endorsements and quotes from high-ranking Liberals. These are the sorts of comments you usually only see if someone has died or been tipped for the leadership.
‘I think it made Tim a hero within the otherwise pretty depressed rank and file of the Liberal Party,’ swooned Trent Zimmerman.
‘He has serious thoughts to contribute to the future of tax and economic policy and he’s passionate. And I admire that about him,’ said James Paterson.
‘Tim has brought energy to one of the hardest jobs in the opposition [and] has been like a dog with a bone in prosecuting the case against Labor’s toxic taxes,’ said Angus Taylor.
‘There was a lot of the young Teddy Roosevelt that I recognised … before he went on to the presidency. It’s the character, his character I recognise in me.’
That one was from Tim Wilson himself.
It’s all a little on the nose, a bit cringe, and a bit too obvious for this to be anything more than factions testing the water.
For the Liberals to consider a federal leadership spill before the Victorian election would be an act of insanity. They are more likely to wait and see how Jess Wilson performs. Even that battle has been complicated by Labor’s decision to switch Premiers.
What do you think – is a leadership spill on the cards before the end of the year?
Are the factions thinking of calling ‘time’ on Angus Taylor and Matt Canavan’s conservative pitch to win back the base?
And if there is to be a leadership spill, could Tim Wilson win the numbers?
Alexandra Marshall is an independent writer. If you would like to support her work, shout her a coffee over at donor-box.
