Over the weekend, I made a prediction that we would be looking at a Sussan Ley, Tim Wilson, David Littleproud moderate trinity.

This would allow the Coalition to wander away from the election feeling victorious and merrily trip over bits of Adam Bandt and Zoe Daniel on their way into Parliament.

Surviving conservative MPs are not ready to hear that their ideological framework is defunct. Voting for their favourite faction allows them to remain empowered without learning any difficult truths. We treat children the same way when their beloved pet dies.

As of Monday afternoon, Littleproud is locked in, Wilson has confirmed he’s staying out of the leadership fight (but not necessarily the deputy position), and Ley is on track for the ‘a woman will fix our image’ pitch.

The very last thing the Liberal Party needs is a ‘Yas queen!’ persona, but here we are…

Senator Hollie Hughes, a self-confessed fan of Sussan Ley, was on Sky News Australia’s First Edition earlier where she said, ‘We’re talking about a woman who has got three degrees in finance, you know, she didn’t just write an essay on a former British Prime Minister.’

When asked about Senator Jacinta Nampijinpa Price displaying a bit of female ambition by moving toward the leadership, she replied:

‘I have all the respect in the world for Jacinta, but I have also worked alongside her in the Senate. To me, it feels like turning up to an RSL club with a membership form and then saying, “By the way, I’m going to run for the Board and I want to be president.” It just wouldn’t work that way. I think Angus Taylor has insulted, not only every Liberal woman, but every Liberal Party member in the parliamentary team by saying look, none of you are quite up to the job, I’ve had to go and recruit someone else. I find it completely offensive. There is plenty of talent in the Liberal team. ’

Female members of the Liberal Party can take as much offence as they like, but the assumption is correct. The Liberals are desperately lacking in talent and Senator Price is by far the best choice.

She enjoys the popular support of the Australian people which she earned during the Voice to Parliament media circus, is naturally charismatic, and capable of speaking her mind instead of coughing up moderate post-it notes pre-approved by focus groups.

Conservative values are written in her base code, which you can see when Senator Price recoils at the suggestion of gender quotas or grievance politics. This is a natural aversion to poisonous ideology.

And to Senator Hughes I would say, leaders are not political creatures who win at the factional game or because their CV sprawls across the room in a battle of inches. They are people who rise by the virtue of public fascination because there is something desirable about their core being that makes them suitable for power. That’s what merit actually means in the context of politics.

Being salty about this only sours public opinion against those who complain.

What happened on Monday is a shame, but Nationals Senator Matt Canavan did the right thing by running for the leadership.

Conservative voters were giddy at the prospect of an Angus Taylor, Jacinta Nampijinpa Price, Matt Canavan life raft when it drifted into view following the sinking of the HMAS Coalition. This means they still care enough about the Coalition to root for its survival. That hope for the future has not sunk, but it did slip over the horizon and it will take a storm to blow it back. Three years is a long time in politics, and no doubt there will be unsettled weather.

David Littleproud remains with Kevin Hogan as his deputy.

Speaking to the badly behaved flock of press, Mr Littleproud said of the positive election result for the Nationals, ‘These aren’t my achievements. We are a collective.’

He repeated that often during the interview.

Someone should tap him on the shoulder and explain that stammering ‘collective’ over and over and over again is not a good idea. It was giving communist vibes rather than unity, where the latter is probably what Littleproud was going for.

‘The way that we’ve dealt with the last three years is the way we’ll deal with the next three years.’

To this, one of our Facebook followers said, ‘What’s the definition of insanity?’

Given the emphasis Matt Canavan placed on Net Zero when making his leadership pitch, the press relentlessly pecked at the topic, but Littleproud was not easy to draw into a conversation about energy. All he really said was, ‘Energy is the economy.’

Everyone can do that. ‘Money is wealth!’ ‘Slippery when wet!’ ‘The sun gives us warmth!’ They are meaningless statements that confirm the bleeding obvious.

Asked if he would stake his leadership on Net Zero, he quickly diverted. When the prying questions continued, Littleproud chastised the press, telling them that he was not going to play in any Canberra bubbles.

Ultimately, Littleproud spent a lot of time admitting that energy is important, but what are the Nationals going to do about it?

By shifting responsibility onto a future ‘collective’ decision, Littleproud is either admitting he doesn’t know what that consensus is despite leading the party to an election, or he knows the consensus is unpopular with voters who prefer Canavan. Although to be fair, it’s possible that Canavan’s failed leadership bid has convinced some Nationals to switch over to the anti-Net Zero side.

We should remember that this leadership mess is happening because of an election result – a single ‘win’ or ‘lose’ outcome given to political parties that bombarded the public with a hundred propositions. Which did they approve? What did they endure through gritted teeth?

Democracy gives the public an awkward and ambiguous tool to steer political movements.

How can a sheet of paper with a list of names tell a party why they were rejected?

Even if it could, would they listen?

These leadership battles are not about individuals, they are a Litmus test for the Coalition that will reveal their survival prospects and whether or not they have taken the time to really listen to their base.

Flat White is written by Alexandra Marshall. If you would like to support her work, shout her a coffee over at donor-box.