Could Penny Mordaunt lead the Tories into the election? This is the talk this weekend after several papers splashed on a push by Conservative MPs on the right of the party to oust Sunak and replace him with his former leadership rival. The Daily Mail reports that these MPs met with supporters of Mordaunt this week to discuss the possibility of coalescing around her should Sunak face a confidence vote in the coming months. The argument goes that Mordaunt is the only person that would improve the party’s chances after polling suggested she was the only candidate who would fare better than Sunak (by seven points according to one poll).

So, is this all pie in the sky or could it become reality? It’s fair to say it has been a dreadful week for the Tories and Sunak specifically. The defection of Lee Anderson to Reform (I write about the split on the right here), the racism row over comments from a mega Tory donor and the simply fact the Tories are polling at their lowest in some time means that – as one Tory MP puts it – ‘the mood is dark’. Then there’s the ongoing plot to take down Rishi Sunak led by figures largely outside of parliament. Add to that the May local elections where the party is expected to endure heavy losses and there is danger lurking in many places for Sunak and his team.

Mordaunt struggled to win the support of the right previously because of her stance on trans

But it’s still a jump to go from deep Tory unhappiness to changing to their fourth leader in the space of roughly two years. There’s much intrigue over Sunak’s meeting with the 1922 committee of backbenchers this week, but the timing at least was standard – and the conversation more about having the space to go long in the election rather than rush into it. As I say in the magazine this week, the most likely danger point is after the May local elections. ‘People are citing the Boris Johnson model. He replaced Theresa May and won an election in six months’, says an MP. The idea of a coronation in such a time frame – as is being suggested with Mordaunt – is down to time constraints.

However, these things are always easier said than done. Mordaunt struggled to win the support of the right previously because of her stance on trans. Would these MPs really keep quiet? Would she really – as is being suggested – be willing to ‘devolve’ responsibility on that issue? Would enough MPs go along with it? The final question is the most important. As things stand, there are more MPs than not who take issue with the latest ‘plot’. One Tory argues that the only reason Mordaunt is being spoken of is other candidates – such as Kemi Badenoch – would not want to be involved in any pre-election move. In contrast, Mordaunt’s seat is more marginal so she could have more incentive to act.

While there are plenty of MPs this morning getting in touch to say the idea of changing leader equals ‘insanity’, the worry for Sunak is that the unhappiness reaches a point at which it becomes destabilising to the government with months to go to the election – whoever leads them.<//>