France host England tonight in the final match of the 2024 Six Nations. ‘Le Crunch’, as this fixture has come to be known, is never for the faint-hearted but this evening’s atmosphere is likely to be especially febrile.

The match is being played in Lyon, in the south-east of France, instead of the Stade de France in the north of Paris. There’ll be 20,000 fewer fans because of Lyon’s smaller stadium but the noise they will generate will be far greater than the corporate crowd in Paris. Lyon is rugby territory. There are several famous clubs within a 100 mile radius and the chance to barrack les Rosbifs ­– the French retort to being known as ‘frogs’ – will be accepted with glee.

Macron is adamant that the Seine is safe for swimmers

The change of venues is just for this season. The Stade de France is out of action as preparations continue for this summer’s Paris Olympics. The Games have been making the headlines for all the wrong reasons in recent months: everything from the threat of a terrorist attack to the cost of accommodation to the quality of water in the Seine. The river is scheduled to host the Open Water Swimming event and the swimming section of the Triathlon, but according to the French press the poor state of the Seine ‘continues to give organisers a cold sweat’.

A test event last summer was cancelled because of the uncleanliness of the river, and the recent heavy rain in the French capital, which burst the Seine’s banks in some place, has turned the water an alarming shade of brown. Ana Marcela Cunha, the reigning Olympic Open Water Swimming champion, believes a plan B should be considered. ‘The health of the athletes must come first,’ he said recently, urging the organisers to ‘accept that, perhaps, it is unfortunately impossible to hold the events where they want to’.

‘Organisers?’ There is really only one organiser for the 2024 Olympics, and his name is Emmanuel Macron. It was the president’s idea to stage the Opening Ceremony on the Seine – against the advice of police and military chiefs who warned him it would be ‘crazy’ from a security point of view.

It is he who is adamant that the Seine is safe for swimmers. Asked recently if he would fancy having a dip in the river, Macron retorted: ‘You bet! Commitments have been made. I’ll go.’

He probably would slip on a pair of speedos if it made for a good photo opportunity. Earlier this year the president appeared in a short video with a pair of boxing gloves over his shoulder and a punchbag in the background. There’s not much to laugh about in France these days but the president does his best to raise his people’s spirits when he can. Other than his fancy dress fetish, the reason Macron did his best Tyson Fury impersonation was to underline the importance of exercising each day, especially in this Olympic year.

These Olympics really matter to Macron. It’s said that he’s told his minions that the Games will be ‘the climax of his mandate’ and the ‘most beautiful’ in history. The president will certainly strive to ensure that they do place France ‘at the centre of universe’, but there’s one thing that not even he can influence, and that is the medal table.

That is the most likely humiliation to befall France in August. Their intelligence services and military will do their bit to ensure spectators’ security, and the organisers will get the trains and buses running smoothly, but the French Olympians might not be quite so effective.

Leaving aside the fantastic football team, and their decent rugby squad, French sport has been on the wane for years. It’s been four decades since they produced a male Grand Slam tennis champion, or a winner of the Tour de France, and the last Frenchman to win the Formula One title was Alain Prost in 1993. They’ve declined dramatically as an Olympic force; they finished fifth in the medal table in 1996, 31 places above Great Britain. That Atlanta humiliation was Team GB’s nadir, the spur to a dramatic increase in investment and dedication.

Britain had moved up to tenth in the medal table at Athens Olympics in 2004 though we still lagged behind France. It wasn’t until the Beijing Games in 2008 that the investment began to materialise as a new generation of athletes emerged. Britain finished fourth in the table with 51 medals, eight more than France in tenth position. There was the added incentive of hosting the 2012 Games in London, which resulted in a record haul of 65 medals, 29 of which were gold.

These Olympics really matter to Macron

France won 35 medals in total in London, only 11 of which were gold. That number was down to ten at the 2020 Games in Tokyo, among a haul of 33 medals in total. Team GB collected 64 and finished fourth, behind the USA, China and Japan, underlining their status as the dominant European force in recent Olympic Games.

Can France steal that crown from Britain in Paris? It’s unlikely. The investment still isn’t there and, most importantly, the French education system doesn’t provide sporting opportunities to children the way Britain’s does. The exception is football. Since 1988, the best young teenage talent has been nurtured at one of 16 elite academies, which double as high schools. From this system emerged the likes of Thierry Henry and Kylian Mbappé.

In last year’s World Athletics Championships, France (population 66 million) managed one medal, a silver, which was the same as British Virgin Islands (population 30,000). Team GB won ten.

A gloomy Stéphane Diagana, who won a hurdles gold for France in the 1997 World Championships, forecast a similar tally in the Paris Olympics. ‘When you look at the nations here, there are nations that invest more,’ he said in his role as a TV pundit. ‘It’s a whole system, it’s the place of sport in schools. That’s where it all starts.’

Macron is a master of spin and will likely be able to hail the 2024 Olympics as the most beautiful ever. Massaging the medal table will be trickier and he’d be advised to lower his expectations. Don’t worry about beating Britain, just make sure France finishes above the British Virgin Islands.