It is time to wake up to the growing international threat posed by Islamic State-Khorasan (IS-K), the group believed to be behind Friday’s terror attack on a Moscow concert hall that left more than 130 people dead. For far too long this Afghanistan-based offshoot of Islamic State, formed in 2015, has been underestimated. Ignoring it is no longer a safe or wise policy option.

Alarm bells have been sounding for some time now about the growing threat posed by IS-K

IS-K has been growing in strength in Taliban-led Afghanistan ever since the Americans pulled out of the country in 2021. It has been successful in attracting a growing number of jihadis to its cause through a series of deadly attacks. Some reports suggest its fighters now number more than 2,500 – a considerable increase for a group that started off with no more than a few hundred recruits. What are its aims? It wants to establish an Islamic caliphate in central and south Asia. It hopes to achieve this through the tried and tested method of Islamists everywhere: sowing instability and chaos through murder and violence.

The terror attacks increasingly attributed to the group provide ample evidence of its growing capacity to conduct cross-border operations in a number of countries. IS-K was behind the twin bombings in Kerman in Iran in January, which killed an estimated 90 people and injured hundreds more. The group has also claimed responsibility for several attacks in neighbouring Pakistan. This includes a suicide bombing at a Shi’ite mosque in Peshawar in 2022 and another attack in Bajaur district in Pakistan last year, which killed 60 and wounded more than 100 others. It was also behind the attack on Kabul airport, which killed 13 American soldiers and 170 Afghans during the US withdrawal from the country in 2021. It has claimed to have orchestrated more than 200 attacks in Afghanistan. What is without doubt is that in eight short years, it has managed to establish itself as one of the most brutal terror groups in a region that is already teeming with militants and extremists: quite some feat. Running parallel to its terror ambitions is a clever propaganda operation, trumpeting its violent successes with the aim of attracting even more recruits to its cause.

Alarm bells have been sounding for some time now about the growing threat posed by IS-K, but few in power seem to have been listening. In March last year, General Michael Kurilla, head of US Central Command, told the Senate armed services committee that IS-K could be capable of conducting external operations ‘with little or no warning’ in less than six months. Kurilla was speaking primarily about the group’s ability to carry out attacks in Asia and Europe, but US officials have long pointed out that IS-K propaganda frequently trumpets its intentions for a 9/11 style attack on the United States.

The uncomfortable truth is that the Biden administration’s decision to withdraw from Afghanistan – which paved the way for the Taliban to return – has inadvertently helped to strengthen IS-K. The ability to monitor terrorist threats emanating from Afghanistan has been seriously downgraded since America pulled out. Thousands of fighters and potential recruits escaped from prison in the power vacuum and chaos that ensued as the Taliban prepared to seize power in the weeks and months after America’s departure. The humanitarian crisis and the wider social breakdown once again leaves the country as an ideal base for Islamists to congregate, plot and operate with impunity. It is all eerily reminiscent of al-Qaeda in the years before the 9/11 attacks.

So, what next? IS-K is still in its infancy when it comes to conducting an international campaign of sustained violence and terror. It doesn’t have the money, logistics and numbers required to do much beyond its Afghan base. Not yet, anyway. But – and this is the critical point – it can no longer be dismissed. It is growing more ambitious and aggressive in its attempts to sow terror in as wide a geographical area as possible. The growing number of successful attacks it has carried out highlight the glaring holes in intelligence-gathering and security when it comes to monitoring the movements of militants in a part of the world plagued by political violence and terrorism. No one in power can say they weren’t warned. Combating IS-K must be made a priority.