Is Britain’s economy ‘turning a corner’? Rishi Sunak thinks so, but convincing his fellow MPs and the public is going to be difficult. At the ‘SME Connect’ conference in Warwickshire this morning, the Prime Minister spoke about the ‘tough couple of years’ the country has been through, insisting the UK economy is now heading ‘in the right direction.’

Perhaps there is more to come in the way of tax cuts

On several metrics, Sunak is right. January’s growth figures, coming in at 0.2 per cent, suggest the UK is likely to consign its technical recession to the end of last year. Forecasters expect April will return the inflation rate back to the Bank of England’s target of 2 per cent, which should give it more room to start the steady process of cutting interest rates. This week’s economic updates may not fully show what’s to come (we’ll get February’s inflation data this Wednesday, and the Monetary Policy Committee’s latest deliberation on rates on Thursday), but once higher energy costs fall out of the data in April, much better news is expected.

Sunak is right to bet on a more positive economic narrative developing in the coming months, which is why he’s asking his supporters to hang on a little longer. The problem for the Prime Minister is that he’s been here before: asking the country to wait out the tough times, in order to reap the economic rewards down the road. One could easily mistake some of his comments today for something said by ministers back at the start of last year, when the country was still reeling from the Liz Truss spending experiment.

Almost 18 months since taking up the job in No. 10, Sunak’s messaging doesn’t feel all that different, adding to the sense of frustration felt by some of his fellow MPs that nothing is changing (at least, not quickly enough) to make a meaningful difference to the party’s polling.

The government is also risking overpromising on economic progress in the coming months. It’s a good bet to say the economic outlook will improve, but Sunak’s description of a ‘bounce back’ is unlikely to match reality. The Office for Budget Responsibility expects 0.8 per cent growth this year: that’s very marginal gains in the next few months, if we’re lucky, that ultimately continue the trend of stagnation.

Sunak is deliberately trying to connect his calls to wait to the employee National Insurance tax cuts delivered over the past four months. He is trying to say that the former is what made the latter possible, translating to a £900 tax cut for the average worker. Perhaps there is more to come in the way of tax cuts – even another fiscal event before the election, if the economy improves. But given that the Budget once again failed to move the polls, it seems increasingly likely the Tories will need to give their economic offering one more try before election day. Sunak’s comments hint there is more to come – just not yet.