Rishi Sunak has finally confirmed what most MPs already knew: there won’t be a May general election. Speaking to ITV News West Country on Thursday night, the Prime Minister was asked if there would be a general election at the same time as the local elections on 2 May. He replied: ‘There won’t be a general election on that day but when there is a general election, what matters is the choice.’

It’s been clear for some time that Tory election strategists were not keen on going to the polls in May. While there have been some in No. 10 keen on the idea previously, the fact that the UK is technically in a recession and the Tories are polling on around 25 points means that even the May enthusiasts have gone cold on the idea. Sunak has hinted at this – suggesting previously that the most likely date for the election is the second half of the year.

Sunak cannot stop the general sense of his party losing hope

So, why has he now specifically ruled it out and gone further with his language? Ultimately the sense in government is that the May election speculation was having a destabilising effect on the Tory party. Labour politicians have been talking the prospect up – in part because they would like to go to the polls now and in part so they could accuse Sunak of bottling it when he didn’t. But more concerning to No. 10 is the Tory MPs suggesting it could happen: it tended to be Sunak critics pushing the idea given talk of an imminent election is a sure fire way to make the Tory party particularly nervy.

The most likely date for the election is autumn, although nothing can be certain. What’s more, Sunak faces a bumpy ride getting there. The local elections in May will be a danger point for his premiership with the Prime Minister’s critics viewing it as the best – and last – opportunity to strike and call for a change in leadership.

While the assurance that MPs will not be forced into an early election will calm some in the party, Sunak cannot stop the general sense of his party losing hope. Defence minister James Heappey today joins the list of Tory MPs planning to step down at the next election. No. 10 have been trying to get MPs to space out such announcements rather than have a deluge of bad news. But it also means there is a drip drip effect of MPs appearing to be preparing for eventual defeat.