On Wednesday night, Rishi Sunak urged his party to ‘dig deep and fight’ in the face of difficult polling. The Prime Minister will be hoping this morning that the message landed as another damaging poll has been released. The latest from YouGov/Times puts the Labour lead at 25 points. But the part that will worry Tory MPs most is the position of Reform. The poll – carried out between 19 and 20 March – puts the Tories on 19 points and Reform just four points behind on 15 points.

The poll comes after Lee Anderson’s defection to Reform – which has seen the party boost its membership and visibility. So an Anderson-linked poll bump had been expected. The question is whether this is part of a new trend that could even see Reform level peg or overtake the Tories. Not helping matters for Sunak again is the fact that his Rwanda plan has been further delayed – until June at the earliest – after the Lords succeeded in adding back several amendments to the legislation (meaning the Bill will return to the Commons after the Easter recess where Tory MPs will strip out the amendments once again).

As for where Reform go next, there could be more defections – particularly if the party continues to climb in the polls. On the day of Anderson’s defection, Tice and others suggested there would be plenty more to come. As I wrote in last week’s Spectator cover piece, they claim they are speaking to a dozen MPs, mainly Tories but a few independents and one Labour. The most likely defection time is after the May local elections. But the biggest factor that could help Reform gather further momentum is the return of Nigel Farage. When he appeared on Spectator TV last week, Farage would not rule out the possibility. A return would be a nightmare scenario for the Tories.

Those in Reform believe they have an opportunity to seize this moment of peak Tory unpopularity (few prime ministers have seen approval ratings as low as Sunak has now) and use it for a realignment of politics. This latest poll suggests their plan is gathering pace.<//>