We all comfort ourselves by believing in cause and effect. According to Dr Brian Klaas, we wilfully ignore a bewildering truth: but for a few small changes, our lives and our societies could be profoundly different.

When given the choice between complex uncertainty and comforting – but wrong – certainty, we too often choose comfort. In other words, we ignore the flukes.

Brian is an associate professor of global politics at University College, London, a contributing writer for The Atlantic, and the author of several books, the most recent of which has just been released. It is titled: Fluke: Chance, Chaos, and why everything we do matters.

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