It’s the threat the Tories really fear: a high-profile defection at the beginning of an election year. Richard Tice’s Reform party might be polling at around 10 per cent nationally but until now they’ve struggled to make an impact in Westminster. That could all change if Lee Anderson, the red wall Rottweiller, chooses to defect following his loss of the Tory whip last Friday. ‘His sentiments are supported by millions of British citizens, including myself’, declared Tice in a statement last night.

And now Mr S has evidence suggesting that the government might be inadvertently aiding Reform’s cause through their choice of priorities. One such example is gradual smoking ban announced by Rishi Sunak at October’s Conservative party conference. Polling of 2,014 adults for FTI Consulting this month found that approximately two-thirds (65 per cent) of voters in marginal constituencies agree that, ahead of next week’s Budget, the Conservatives should focus on reducing taxes, not regulating tobacco products. That figure rises to 81 per cent among Reform switchers in those seats.

Two-thirds of voters in marginal voters meanwhile believe that if an adult wishes to smoke, that’s their business – a number that jumps to 73 per cent of those planning to vote Reform in marginals. Concern about law and order is high on the list of priorities too: almost nine in ten (87 per cent) of Reform switchers in marginal seats agreed that ‘if adults are prohibited from buying legal tobacco products in shops, I would be concerned about criminals selling dangerous counterfeit products.’

Something for ministers to consider, perhaps, given the need to win over Reform voters come polling day…