With Keir Starmer having rid the Labour party of its Corbynite doctrines, Britain’s independent nuclear deterrent would not be expected to feature much in the coming general election campaign. But will that change after the failed test firing of a Trident missile, for the second time in a row? The missile, which was launched from HMS Vanguard off the east coast of the United States in January, was intended to travel to the edge of space before landing in the middle of the Atlantic. Instead, it plopped straight into the sea.

We should know a bit more about the incident today when defence secretary Grant Shapps – who was on board the submarine when the failed test firing was made – makes a statement to the Commons. But we are still unlikely to know the full picture given the security implications of informing potential enemies of faults with our missiles. The BBC is reporting this morning that there was nothing wrong with the missile itself, which has a price tag of around £17million, but that the problem was caused by a ‘calibration error’. Other reports suggest that the rockets failed to ignite: the missile was fired out of its tube by means of compressed air, as normal, but nothing else happened, causing the missile to fall into the sea beside the submarine. All we do know is that this is not the first failed test-firing – there was another failure in 2016.

The missile has a price tag of around £17million

Will the incident re-energise Labour’s unilateral nuclear disarmament wing? There are few things potentially more devastating than a nuclear missile which drops short of its intended target, although this one obviously did not have nuclear warhead attached. Then again, Britain’s nuclear weapons – if they were ever fired at all – would only ever be fired from somewhere on the high seas. We don’t have our own land-based nuclear weapon, although US nuclear missiles have been based in Britain. The 2016 test failure did not stop Parliament approving the renewal of the Trident system – which involves extending its life up until the 2060s at a cost currently estimated at £31 billion. Public support for upgrading Trident has grown since 2016, in particular since Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. In the latest YouGov poll, in January, 42 per cent said they were in favour of replacing the current system with a more powerful nuclear deterrent, 19 per cent wanted a cheaper solution. Only 15 per cent wanted to disarm Britain of its nuclear deterrent.

There seems little appetite, then, for a policy of unilateral nuclear disarmament, and there would be little political gain were Labour to revisit that territory, even were Starmer minded to do so. The latest misfiring is a big embarrassment, especially at a time when Nato is trying to convince Putin of the strength of European defence. But it is unlikely to change the politics of nuclear weapons in Britain. More likely it underlines the need for improvement in our nuclear deterrent.