The City of London would be hollowed out. Bankers would have to retrain as burger chefs. And Paris and Frankfurt would emerge as the twin centres of the European financial markets, leaving London as little more than a backwater. Of all the predictions made by some Remainers during Brexit, there was one that kept re-emerging: that financial trading would inevitably move to the other side of the Channel.

It’s clear that this doom mongering was overblown. A deal has finally been struck between EU chiefs and the bloc’s member states that will keep the City of London in business for several years to come. According to Politico, following pressure from France, the EU has allowed European banks to continue ‘clearing’ – the complex but vital process of settling trades in the financial markets – in the UK. The process of ‘clearing’ was made compulsory after the financial crisis of 2008; London clearing houses quickly became the most popular as banks from around the world sought to conduct trades from start to finish in one place.

Even helping the British was better than allowing Germany to claim power over the bloc’s clearing houses

The EU could have used its regulatory powers to shift the business inside its own borders, and kill a lucrative chunk of the City’s business. London’s rivals hoped that, once ‘clearing’ moved to a different city, there would be a powerful incentive for banks and brokers to follow suit.

As it turns out, however, while some trades will have to be transferred to EU clearing houses, the bulk of them will be allowed to stay in London. The French, somewhat unexpectedly, sided with the UK because they were worried that, if the business moved, it would go to Frankfurt rather than Paris. That would make the German city, already home to the European Central Bank, the key hub for the whole of the continent. It turns out that France may well fear Germany more than it hates Brexit: even helping the British was better than allowing its neighbour to claim power over the bloc’s clearing houses.

Critics of Brexit, who confidently predicted the demise of the City, have missed two key points. Firstly, membership of the EU is far less relevant to economic activity than they assumed, and most of the regulation, while expensive and often irritating, doesn’t make much difference either way. Next, the major European countries are far from united. The French may not like Brexit – that much is clear – but they like Germany even less. They are far more worried about Frankfurt seizing leadership from Paris than they are about London. The City may not be in great shape, with the markets in the doldrums, and few new listings. But it will hold on to many of its key functions – and ironically it can thank the French for that.