Simon Clarke’s call this week for Rishi Sunak to go didn’t exactly inspire others to follow. Instead, it’s had a unifying effect on the Tory party. ‘He’s given us all a common cause to rally behind: uniting against him,’ says a former cabinet minister.

After the publication of Clarke’s Daily Telegraph op-ed declaring that ‘it is now beyond doubt that whilst the Prime Minister is far from solely responsible for our present predicament, his uninspiring leadership is the main obstacle to our recovery’, Clarke has received criticism from all sides. The Tory WhatsApp groups are filled with MPs venting that ‘it simply burns the party to direct it all at the Prime Minister’ and accusing Clarke of being ‘insular’. Another MP adds: ‘For someone allegedly so smart, it’s unbelievably dumb – not to mention disloyal’.

These rebels argue that the party has removed a leader twice before so anything is possible

It’s still possible that more MPs come out to echo Clarke’s comments in the coming weeks. The most likely MPs are the ten who joined Clarke in voting against the ‘safety of Rwanda’ bill at third reading, which includes the New Conservative leaders Danny Krueger and Miriam Cates. Even if this group followed Clarke, it would still only be a handful of MPs who are known to be Sunak critics. Therefore the current threat to Sunak is rather mild – and the bigger concern in Tory HQ is that all this commotion makes the narrow path to a Tory recovery narrower still.

But could this change in the coming months and Sunak’s position become vulnerable? This is the argument from the plotters: the polls will remain terrible, the party will remain on its current course and Sunak will be ‘the albatross around the neck’ in the eyes of the voters. Should Nigel Farage return the polling could get even worse. Pair this with difficult by-elections, ongoing problems with the Rwanda policy and nightmare local elections in May and more MPs will come around to Clarke’s thinking.

For now, this scenario seems far-fetched but these rebels argue that the party has removed a leader twice before so anything is possible. What’s more, they are focussed and linked to the mysterious Conservative Britain Alliance, a group of unknown Tory donors funding damaging polls that have been appearing in the Telegraph. The latest poll, run by YouGov, is particularly questionable given it simply asked voters if they would prefer a Tory leader who delivered on stopping the boats, clearing the NHS backlog and cutting taxes without actually saying whether this person existed or looking in to how this would be achieved.

While the Clarke intervention has not hurt Sunak significantly, more damaging is the news that his former No. 10 pollster Will Dry has left Downing Street to go and work with the Conservative Britain Alliance. The jokes write themselves when it comes to Sunak’s pollster deciding the polls were so bad that he has joined a group intent on removing Sunak from office. Dry has put out a statement – similar to Clarke’s – arguing that electoral oblivion is coming:

‘I further concluded, again sorrowfully, that the Conservatives are heading for the most almighty of defeats. Be in no doubt: we are on course for at least a decade of Labour rule.’

The Times reports that the rebel group is based in central London where former government aides are working with a handful of Tory MPs to remove Sunak. Inevitably, former Home Secretary Suella Braverman’s name comes up in conversations about these efforts. Sunak’s decision to sack Braverman led to a war of words, but there was friction well before the reshuffle. Some of the plotters talk about Kemi Badenoch as a potential replacement but her team pour cold water on her engaging with anyone in this group. Others seem more intent on destroying Sunak and worrying about the second bit after.

The question is whether they have a big enough impact to move Sunak or instead simply keep throwing rocks and Sunak stays in post – thereby making the party’s path to recovery even narrower. For now, the PM faces a small group backed by mysterious funding made up of people intent on making life as difficult for him as they can.