Hezbollah has escalated attacks against Israel in the last few days. The Iran-backed Lebanese militant organisation started firing missiles into Israel when the war against Hamas started last October. In the three months since, it has kept attacks limited in order to avoid an escalation into a full-scale war, but the situation is highly volatile.

Since the Israeli assassination of senior Hamas leader Saleh al-Arouri in Beirut a week ago, tensions have been rising. Hezbollah’s attacks have intensified further this week, following the killing of top commander Wissam Tawil. Tawil commanded Hezbollah’s elite Radwan fighting forces based close to the border with Israel. Today Israel killed two more Hezbollah commanders: one headed the organisation’s aerial forces in south Lebanon. Israel’s airforce and artillery have also attacked Hezbollah infrastructure.

Hezbollah forces have used drones equipped with explosives and missiles to attack strategic Israeli military targets. In one of the strikes, Hezbollah successfully hit an Israeli military command centre, but otherwise achievements have been limited.

Despite the recent escalation, Hezbollah prefers to avoid a full-scale war against Israel. Attacks on both sides have so far been limited and calculated. The organisation’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, has made it clear earlier in the war that Hamas’s attack was done without coordination with Hezbollah, and although the organisation supports Hamas, they consider the war a Palestinian matter.

With vast American forces in the region, and due to Israel’s heavy handed response to the attack against it on 7 October, Hezbollah would rather not engage in a war that will damage the considerable force it has managed to build over the years. Iran also wants to avoid war and uses its proxies – Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen – to attack Israel.

Hezbollah’s missiles can hit anywhere in Israel and those can still be fired from deep inside Lebanon

Things are more complicated on the Israeli side. On the one hand, Hezbollah poses a greater risk to Israel than Hamas does. The Lebanese group is better trained and has substantially greater capabilities. It’s also believed that Hezbollah have been building an underground array of tunnels similar or even greater to that of Hamas. When the war started Israel evacuated tens of thousands of Israeli civilians living close to the borer with Lebanon. Despite living as refugees in temporary housing for the past three months, many refuse to return to their homes until the threat from Hezbollah is reduced significantly.

The US, along with France and several Arab nations, has been engaged with negotiations with Hezbollah in order to find a solution that will contain the war. Some of the proposed solutions include a withdrawal of Hezbollah forces away from the border and keeping them behind the Litany River in south Lebanon.

This alone wouldn’t be enough to ensure that Hezbollah doesn’t pose a threat. Its missiles can hit anywhere in Israel and those can still be fired from deep inside Lebanon. However, the further away the missiles are fired from, the more time Israelis have to find life-saving shelters. Although the missile threat is serious, the threat of an attack is similar to the one carried out by Hamas; infiltration of thousands of terrorists into Israeli towns, resulting in the killing, rape, torture and abduction of civilians, is an even greater risk and one that Israel cannot accept.

To prevent Israel from initiating a full war against Hezbollah, it won’t be enough for Hezbollah to agree to move away from the border. There would have to be assurances that the area between the border and the Litani river is demilitarised. Israel would also want to see the tunnels destroyed.

When Israel kept a security force in this area between 1985 and 2000, UN forces located in the region had little or no effect on the actions of Hezbollah. It’s doubtful that peacekeeping forces will be able to stand up to Hezbollah’s heavily armed militants. Israel would need strong assurances that Hezbollah will be kept far enough from its border to significantly reduce its threat. This will require a presence of some form of effective military force able to deter Hezbollah and ready to fight them if necessary.

Despite the risk, the timing for another full-scale war is inconvenient for Israel. Three months of intense fighting in Gaza have taken their toll on the army and the economy. Fighting a second, and much more challenging front will not be impossible, but it will be very difficult and may limit achievements in Gaza. Israel would also need continued American support, which is not granted in case of war in Lebanon.

Israel’s decades-long experience fighting against Hezbollah adds to its reluctance with engage in another war. Although the IDF has superior capabilities, the 2006 war ended in a disappointing draw, after which Hezbollah became considerably stronger.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is on a visit to the Middle East. One of his main goals is to stop an escalation into a full-scale war in Lebanon that may involve other regional forces, cause a devastating humanitarian crisis in Lebanon, and may require broader American military intervention. If Blinken manages to do the near-impossible and find a solution that will satisfy Israel’s security needs, it’s likely that a war will be avoided – at least for now.