Of all the reasons why the Conservatives deserve to lose the next general election, their nonsensical childcare policy is among the most convincing. Labour had needlessly meddled in this sector, with little positive effect on affordability, accessibility, or maternal employment. The Tories could have taken on the vested interests and trades unions, scaled back the state’s involvement, and created a competitive environment with lower costs and greater parental choice.

Instead, on assuming power in 2010, they introduced 15 free hours for all 3-and-4 year-olds in England and maintained strict regulatory requirements, including cumbersome record-keeping and mandatory targets. By 2023, government spending on childcare and pre-school had swollen to around £6 billion. And what did they have to show for it? Parents were facing high out-of-pocket costs; maternal labour force participation did increase, though no faster than female unemployment generally; hundreds of nurseries were closing each year; and many low-cost alternatives, such as childminders, had been squeezed out of the sector.

Undeterred, and in what can only be viewed as a cynical move to woo voters, Jeremy Hunt stood up at the despatch box for the 2023 budget and doubled down. ‘We will introduce 30 hours of free childcare not just for 3-and-4 year-olds, but for every single child over the age of 9 months’, he declared proudly. Rarely should the Tories listen to Labour strategists, but whoever told journalists at the time that ‘this thing is going to unravel quickly when it collides with reality’ was right.

Nurseries have warned that they don’t have the staffing to offer extra places

It has been reported today that nurseries have not been told how much they will be paid for each of the places on offer, despite the fact that they’re supposed to be taking in children in less than three months. The vast majority of providers will not then decide how many ‘free’ hours to offer without knowing how much funding they will receive for each place. As a result, thousands of parents may be unable to access the government’s offer this year.

This was a bad idea. Even before the Chancellor expanded the provision, serious concerns were being raised over childcare funding, supply and staff shortages. Nurseries have long complained that the government’s free hours are paid at below the market rate, forcing them to cross-subsidise with children who are not eligible, or who require wraparound care. Extending the offer all but rules this out. More providers will be forced to close, some will choose not to offer funded places. Either way it will be harder for parents to find childcare places.

Nurseries have warned that they don’t have the staffing to offer extra places: one study has suggested almost 50,000 additional workers could be needed this year to maintain existing provision and provide the expanded entitlement. And none of this is to mention parents’ preferences, or whether formalised education settings run by staff with state-approved qualifications and training are necessarily the right environments for most toddlers.

Having ceded too much ground to the left, it is possible that panicked policymakers, under mounting pressure, will move to completely nationalise childcare. After all, fewer and fewer businesspeople will put money into running nurseries on this hand-to-mouth basis. A sector which, until the 1990s, was largely a private and charitable matter, will be turned into another wing of the ever-growing state. It will be more expensive, less flexible (probably termtime only, with fixed hours as most existing state nurseries are) and much less responsive to parental choice.

The Tories never should have allowed themselves to be dragged into an arms race with Labour over childcare. They should never have fallen prey to the belief that the state can do a better job of raising kids than parents. Yes, the government should provide targeted support to those on lower incomes, but this could be done through the welfare system. Fixing the housing crisis and ending individual, as opposed to household, taxation, could also ease family budgets. Rather than subsidising provision Whitehall bureaucrats think we need, at a price which it determines, the government could provide top-up childcare vouchers for parents to spend as they want, at the times they want.

The 2019 general election saw an unprecedented gender gap in party support. While 29 per cent of men voted Labour, 37 per cent of women did. Prior to 2010, there was very little difference in voter choice. It’s highly doubtful this latest fiasco will turn the tide.