Rishi Sunak has this afternoon given his strongest hint yet that the next general election will be held in the autumn rather than the spring. Speaking to broadcasters on a visit to a youth centre in Mansfield, the Prime Minister said: ‘My working assumption is we’ll have a general election in the second half of this year and in the meantime I’ve got lots that I want to get on with.’

The Conservative leader declined to categorically rule out a May election but repeated his intentions to pick a date later in the year. ‘I want to keep going, managing the economy well and cutting people’s taxes,’ Sunak said. ‘But I also want to keep tackling illegal migration.’ It comes after weeks of speculation that the next contest will be timed to coincide with the local elections, which look set to be extremely challenging for the Tories.

“My working assumption is that we’ll have an election in the second half of this year”

PM Rishi Sunak appears to rule out a May general election, adding he’s got “lots to get on with”
https://t.co/9GH0CzOQge pic.twitter.com/9VRdih8FrY

— BBC Politics (@BBCPolitics) January 4, 2024

No. 10 is split on when the next election ought to be

Sunak’s comments come ahead of his first ‘town hall’ event of the year – from which national media are excluded. His remarks are designed to dampen down speculation about a May election, without totally ruling it out. This is because No. 10 is conscious of Labour attempts to replicate the ‘bottler’ narrative which the Tories exploited, to great effect, in 2007.

As Katy Balls wrote last week, figures in No. 10 are split as to when the next election ought to be. Those in the spring camp argue that there is a real risk of things getting worse for Sunak politically after May – so going then is the least worst option. But those who prefer autumn retort that going to the country when Labour is so far ahead in the polls simply goes against the laws of political gravity.

Back in 2007, Gordon Brown allowed talk of an early election to spiral out of hand, meaning that when he decided against such a move, the Conservatives could depict him as weak and indecisive. Sunak’s comments are an attempt to avoid a repeat of that. They also have the added advantage of knocking Keir Starmer’s speech from being the lead item on this afternoon’s news bulletins. <//>