It’s a crunch week for Rishi Sunak as MPs prepare to cast their verdict on his Safety of Rwanda bill. The bill, which aims to get the government’s ‘stop the boats’ policy off the ground by unilaterally declaring Rwanda a safe country, returns to the Commons on Tuesday for its committee stage. There could then be a third reading vote as early as Wednesday night.

Unfortunately for Sunak, as many as 60 Tory rebels on the right are getting behind amendments to toughen up the bill and reduce the opportunity for would-be migrants to appeal. This could ultimately lead to a resignation, with Tory party deputy chairman Lee Anderson considering voting with the rebels. In a sign of the times, allies of cabinet ministers appear, too, to see the upside of talking tough on the bill even if they don’t want to resign – with the Times running a story on Tory rising star Kemi Badenoch’s efforts behind the scenes to harden the bill.

The Rwanda vote is becoming a proxy for Sunak’s leadership

When it comes to the amendments, even the rebels – which includes MPs from the ‘five families’ of the Tory right as Mark Francois once dubbed them – admit they do not have the numbers to add their amendments. Instead, they argue Sunak should listen to them and adopt the changes as (a) the bill needs them to work (something No. 10 disputes); (b) If the bill is unamended, they could work with Labour to sink it in a vote at third reading (which would require 32 Conservative MPs voting against it or around 55 abstaining). The third bit to this which tends to go unsaid but is heavily implied is that Sunak would put a target on his back by angering these MPs and they could act in ways that are destructive to his leadership, such as sending in confidence letters.

The problem for Sunak is that were he to accept the amendments – which include making it so migrants can only lodge a legal challenge against their deportation in exceptional circumstances – the government claim Rwanda could pull the scheme. The left of the party could also say they would then vote down the bill at third reading. The One Nation group has around 100 MPs though not all would follow through on such threats.

Add to this a range of stories this week and the threat to Sunak becomes clearer. Today’s Daily Telegraph runs a YouGov MRP poll warning that the Tories are on course for a 1997-style defeat. The poll suggests that were an election held today, Labour would win a 120-seat majority – every red wall seat won from Labour inn 2019 would go and 11 cabinet ministers, including Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, would find themselves cast out by the public.

The poll was commissioned by the ‘Conservative Britain Alliance’ made up of Tory donors and has been endorsed by Lord Frost, the former cabinet minister. Frost has already been rather vocal in his criticism of Sunak: he suggested before Christmas that a change of leader could be required. Now Frost is calling for the Tory party to do whatever it takes to get back the 2019 coalition:

‘This poll shows we are going to lose, and lose bad, unless we do something about it.’

On top of this, Sunak has two former Home Office colleagues – Suella Braverman and Robert Jenrick – outside the tent. Both seem intent to have their voices heard now they are out of government.

Reading between the lines, it is clear the Rwanda vote is becoming a proxy for Sunak’s leadership. The timing of the opinion poll’s publication this week is just one sign of the way the right of the party is putting pressure on Sunak. Already some are out of the blocks to warn that if this leads to an attempt to change of leader, it would be destructive. As Tim Montgomerie put it overnight:

‘Voters look at how Tory MPs treat their leaders and many will conclude that the short termism, self interest and sectionalism on constant show adds up to a much bigger weakness than any incumbent leader’s inevitable shortcomings. I didn’t want Sunak as Prime Minister but another leadership election would be absurd’.

It is now for Sunak and the Tory whips to decide the best way to navigate multiple demands. Will there be the threat of punishment for those who want to rebel at third reading? Whatever path Sunak chooses, he is entering a make-or-break week.