The first and most important principle of war for any military campaign is the selection and maintenance of ‘the aim’. The aim must be clear and unambiguous, so that everyone, from the most senior general to the private soldier, understands what is trying to be achieved.

Unfortunately for the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) the aim of the war in Gaza – the annihilation of Hamas – is neither clear, unambiguous nor achievable. Now the IDF – or more accurately, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu – is facing the very real risk of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.

When Joe Biden, the US president, spoke to Israelis during a brief visit 12 days after the October attacks, he said he and ‘many Americans’ understood Israel’s ‘shock, pain and rage’. Then he added a warning. ‘Justice must be done. But I caution this – while you feel that rage, don’t be consumed by it. After 9/11, we were enraged in the United States. While we sought justice and got justice, we also made mistakes.’

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is facing the very real risk of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory

That warning, however, appears to have been ignored. Rather than annihilating Hamas, the IDF appears to be attempting to simply destroy Gaza. Given the appallingly grim statistics which emerge daily from the embattled Palestinian territory it is difficult to draw any other reasonable conclusion. To date over 22,000 civilians have been killed and up to 50,000 have been injured, according to the Hamas-run health authority. Over two million people have been displaced, tens of thousands have been made homeless and many hospitals and schools have been destroyed. The level of violence delivered upon Gaza and its population in the wake of the unspeakable Hamas terrorist atrocities which left 1,200 Israelis dead will, no doubt, also serve as a recruiting tool for those bent on the destruction of Israel for decades to come.

Those Israelis who thought the IDF would hit Hamas hard and fast, rescuing the hostages and claiming mission accomplished, might well be wondering when will the war finally end. Even Netanyahu appears unable to set an end date for the conflict.

Israel is also paying a huge price. Close to 500 IDF personnel have been killed in action since October 7th, with almost 200 killed in Gaza alone – more than the British Army lost in eight years of war in Iraq. And the financial cost to Israel is estimated to be around $50 billion.

History is littered with examples of wars in which the dominant combatant either lost or had to withdraw from the conflict with its initial aim in tatters. The Nato-backed war in Afghanistan, where the most powerful military coalition in history could not prevail, and the disastrous war in Iraq, are just two examples.

Israel now faces the very real risk of losing the military initiative in Gaza, if it has not already done so, because of a military aim based on revenge rather than seeking strategic security.

This is not just my view but also that of Ehud Barak, the former Israeli Prime Minister, IDF general and the most highly decorated soldier in Israeli history. He was also Netanyahu’s commanding officer when the pair served together in the special forces.

In a searing article in the Israeli newspaper Haaretz, Barak suggested that rather than Hamas being an existential threat to Israel, it could actually be Mr Netanyahu’s leadership which poses a greater risk to the country, primarily because of his total rejection of a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian crisis. In the article he called for an early election and stated openly that despite the heroic efforts of the IDF and after 15 weeks of fighting ‘Hamas has not been defeated and the return of the hostages is receding.’

He wrote: ‘The IDF cannot optimise the probability of winning when there is no defined political goal. In the absence of a realistic goal, we will end up mired in the Gaza quagmire, fighting simultaneously in Lebanon and in the West Bank, eroding the American backing and endangering the Abraham Accords and the peace agreements with Egypt and with Jordan. This kind of conduct drags Israel’s security into the abyss.’

War is the most unpredictable and dangerous of all human endeavours, which is why most sensible military commanders tend to avoid them at all costs, partly because once wars start they are very difficult to end.

The war in Gaza has already escalated into a wider conflagration involving the Houthis in Yemen and the very real prospect of further and more intensive cross border attacks from Hezbollah terrorists in Lebanon. The security situation in the West Bank has also deteriorated and the level of IDF activity in the area is back to what it was in the first Intifada more than 20 years ago.

Carl von Clausewitz, the Prussian soldier and military theorist, is often quoted as saying ‘Everything in war is very simple. But the simplest thing is difficult.’ Those words could very easily come to haunt the Israeli leaders who believe that the total destruction of Hamas is the route to victory.