It was less than two weeks ago that the US and UK introduced a new element to the multi-faceted conflict in the Middle East. On 12 January they carried out joint strikes against the Houthis, a militia that controls Yemen’s capital Sanaa and large parts of Yemeni territory and is recognised as the country’s government by its main backer, Iran.

The UK and US strikes came in response to weeks of Houthi attacks on ships passing through the Red Sea. The militia claimed its attacks were in response to Israel’s assault on Gaza but in practice it was targeting any and all shipping in the area as well as US and UK warships. In other words, they started it.

The US and its Western allies are now involved in a multi-faceted conflict in the Middle East

Since then, the US has hit Houthis seven more times. On 23 January, the UK once again joined it in its eighth strike. The strikes have successfully destroyed a significant amount of the Houthis’ capacities. But if they were meant to be a deterrent, they are yet to work. As US has acknowledged, the Houthis are determined to keep on going with their attacks.

There are several reasons for the Houthis to have confidence that they can wait out these strikes. They maintain the steadfast support of Tehran, which will continue to back them to hilt. Just this week it was revealed that Iran has been sending more weapons their way. Although getting weapons to Yemen is hard for Iran, intercepting such shipments has also proved difficult for the US and its allies. Earlier this month, two Navy Seals died in such an effort.

The Houthi attacks have done very little to harm Israel (which doesn’t even use its Red Sea port of Eilat for most of its trade). But by claiming them as a response to the war in Gaza, they have earned the Houthis political support in Yemen and beyond. The militia is cynically using the attacks to divert attention from their own incompetent and repressive rule at home.

What has most played to the Houthis’ advantage is that the US and UK have not been able to gather a large coalition for the attacks. Yes, they have the support of Australia, New Zealand, Canada and the Netherlands. But of the countries in Yemen’s vicinity only the tiny Persian Gulf kingdom of Bahrain, which hosts the base of the US Navy’s Fifth Fleet and thus has little choice, has supported the strikes. This is despite the ironic fact that most countries in the region, even Iran itself, have much more to lose from the Houthi attacks on shipping than Israel or any Western country.

Despite the patently ill-informed takes in the West that sardonically link the Houthi attacks to ‘Amazon deliveries being late’, their real effect is a significant increase in shipping and insurance costs that have already hit poorer countries like Egypt and Iran hard. But, crucially, even the Houthis’ traditional arch-nemesis of Saudi Arabia has shied away from supporting the strikes. Having spent close to a decade trying to overthrow the Houthis with a military campaign, Riyadh now treasures the ceasefire it reached with the group in 2022. Not only has it called for ‘self restraint’ in response to the Western strikes, it hasn’t even suspended its political negotiations with the Houthis, ongoing now for the past couple of years.

The West thus faces a tough reality in Yemen. As usual, Washington and London have little appetite for significant military interventions in the region. Speaking to reporters last week, the Pentagon spokesperson Sabrina Singh said, ‘We don’t seek war. We don’t think that we are at war. We don’t want to see a regional war.’ She added, ‘What we are doing with our partners is self defence.’

Similarly, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has avoided taking the strikes to parliament for a vote, arguing that they are merely self defence. In response to a question from fellow Tory MP Jeremy Quin, he said, ‘I just want to be absolutely clear that no decision has been taken to embark on a sustained campaign… these were limited strikes, specifically in response to threats that we’ve received.’

Although Sunak for now has the support of opposition leader Keir Starmer, he will surely come under parliamentary pressure from Labour backbenchers and Scottish nationalists. Biden will also have his own problems back home. The longer the attacks continue, the more pressure he will face from the more left-wing corners of his coalition, and perhaps even from ex-president Donald Trump, in a crucial election year.

The US and UK have both also tried to separate the strikes from the war in Gaza. They are arguing that the strikes on the Houthis, aimed at restoring international shipping in Red Sea, are akin to an anti-piracy action. But past a point this argument is futile, as the Houthis are able to link the attacks to the war in Gaza and gain legitimacy for them on the streets of Yemen and the wider Arab world.

Achieving a ceasefire in Gaza (which Foreign Secretary David Cameron has declared as a goal for the UK) might be the fastest way to contain the Houthi attacks. Alternatively, the UK and US could try to engage Iran which is very wary of the conflict escalating.

Regardless, though, the West needs to integrate its military strikes on the Houthis in a broader policy that addresses the various complications of the conflict. In recent years, there has been a frustratingly familiar trend of taking piecemeal actions without committing to a broader strategy. The Saudis and other regional powers have long complained to the US about this and it was this that led Riyadh to normalise its relations with Tehran following the Houthi attacks of 2019 on its soil. The lack of a lasting commitment by the West to its regional partners has also helped Iran to shore up its allies in the region, at the expense of stability in countries such as Iraq, Lebanon and Yemen.

The US might insist that it doesn’t ‘think’ it’s at war. But it and its Western allies are now involved in a multi-faceted conflict in the Middle East. Pretending these are one-off strikes doesn’t change the reality. If war is a ‘continuation of politics by other means’, US and UK need a firm policy and long-term strategy to guide their military actions.