Hamas’s refusal to negotiate the return of the remaining women still in captivity and an early morning missile attack on Israel brought the ceasefire to an abrupt end on Friday. The Israeli government would have continued to put up with minor infractions by Hamas, and carried on with the deal, despite their repeated violations. However, Hamas’s insistence on drastically changing the terms of the agreement pushed Israel to resume assaults in a sign to Hamas that it refuses to be pushed around. Hamas needed the ceasefire, but miscalculated – thinking that it could push the envelope even more without consequence. It went too far.

Israel’s bombardment of Gaza has been relentless in the two days since. But what happens now? Representatives of the Israeli Mossad – the Institute for Intelligence and Special Operations – left Doha, Qatar, on Saturday, after declaring that negotiations have reached an impasse. Their return signals to Hamas that Israel will not negotiate unless Hamas is serious about a return to the terms of the previous agreement.

Israel will aim to kill Hamas’s leadership in Gaza in order to disable the organisation’s ability to fight effectively

Hamas’s attack on Friday indicates that it has managed to retain some of its military capabilities, and that the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) still has its work cut out in Gaza. As the war resumed, Israel responded to American concerns by promising the Biden administration that it will take concrete steps to minimise civilian casualties, protect vital infrastructure and avoid mass displacement. With the fighting expanding into southern Gaza, this will prove difficult to achieve. So far, the IDF has been making efforts to inform Palestinians which areas are safe and called on them to evacuate into humanitarian regions within the Gaza Strip. Israel has also allowed humanitarian aid into Gaza through the Rafah crossing.

The change in American rhetoric has made Israel realise that it may not be able to fight in the south in the same way it’s been conducting its efforts in the north of Gaza. This could impact what gains it can make against Hamas. U.S. Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin also warned yesterday that the effect of the war on Palestinian civilians could lead to their radicalisation, causing Israel to ‘replace a tactical victory with a strategic defeat.’

Israel will aim to kill Hamas’s leadership in Gaza in order to disable the organisation’s ability to fight effectively. The Israeli government has also reportedly decided to pursue the assassination of Hamas leaders who live outside of Gaza, including in Lebanon and Turkey. The most senior leaders, among them Khaled Meshaal, reside in Qatar. At this point, Israel isn’t likely to kill Hamas leaders in Qatar; these figures have been pivotal in securing the deal with Hamas. Instead, this is a long-term goal that may have to wait until after hostages are returned, or even until after the war.

Despite Israel’s top brass leaving Qatar, and with 136 hostages still in Gaza, including a baby and toddler, Israel will continue negotiations for another deal. The Israeli public overwhelmingly favours the continued return of hostages, even more so now that the harsh conditions and abuse of hostages has been revealed by those released. The IDF also confirmed recently that six Israelis have been killed by Hamas while in captivity. Hostages are under immediate threat and their release is viewed in Israel as urgent. The large demonstration held in Tel Aviv on Saturday was a sign that the public will continue to place pressure on the government to reach a deal.

But even if a fresh ceasefire deal is agreed, it is likely to be only a short term one. At the moment, no long term viable solution exists that will be acceptable on both sides; while the Americans are calling for a two-state solution under the leadership of the Palestinian Authority, Israel’s prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who’s support base isn’t interested in a two-state solution, and who is desperate to remain in power, is purposely not planning that far into the future. What’s more, even if the PA takes control over Gaza, it may not have the political power or the inclination to sign a deal with Israel – as it has consistently refused to do in past negotiations.

Meanwhile, the US, Egypt and Qatar will continue their efforts to broker another deal. Egypt and Qatar have made an informal suggestion for a prolonged ceasefire that will not include the release of hostages, but enable the sides to negotiate a truce. The terms of the deal would include the release of all Israeli hostages, including the bodies of those killed. In return, Israel would release thousands of Palestinian prisoners imprisoned for terrorism offences. The deal also stipulates that Hamas would disarm. It will retain its political power in Gaza, but without military ability to pose a threat to Israel.

Israel has proclaimed that it won’t agree to a temporary ceasefire that does not include the release of hostages. It will also not agree to a deal that leaves Hamas in power. As for Hamas, it is very unlikely to give up its weapons: the group is determined to carry on fighting, whatever the cost is to Palestinian civilians, holding on to the view that an armed struggle and martyrdom are the only ways to achieve its goals.

At the moment, both sides are presenting tough stances; Hamas declared that it won’t resume negotiations unless it’s for a permanent truce, while the director of Mossad, David Barnea, said on Saturday that Israel has ‘zero tolerance’ for Hamas’s game-playing.

Israel hopes that resuming the assault will eventually place enough pressure on Hamas to agree to a deal. If this happens, it’s possible that in the short-term, the war will alternate between temporary ceasefires and resumption of hostilities but with no permanent solution in sight.