Originally meant to expire on Monday, the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas has been extended by at least two days. During the first four days of the ceasefire, 69 hostages abducted on 7 October, including 50 Israelis and 19 foreign nationals were freed by Hamas. In return, Israel freed 120 Palestinian prisoners, many incarcerated for terrorism offences. The deal also included a substantial increase in humanitarian aid into the Gaza Strip.

Across the two added days of ceasefire, Hamas has agreed to release 20 additional hostages. It is likely that, following this extension, with about 170 hostages remaining in Gaza, the sides will agree to prolong the ceasefire.

It seems likely that this ceasefire will carry on, although it’ll be a bumpy road

The release of hostages has, so far, not gone smoothly. As part of Hamas’s psychological warfare against Israel, on Saturday shortly before the release was due to take place, the terror organisation declared that they were refusing to release hostages. Their claim was that Israel had not fulfilled its end of the agreement.

Israel rebuffed Hamas’s claim and threatened to call off the ceasefire and resume military attacks if the hostages were not released by midnight. After hours of nerve wracking negotiations with Hamas, and thanks to pressure from Egypt, Qatar and the US government, the hostages were finally released.

The trouble didn’t stop there. On Sunday, Hamas breeched the agreement not to separate mothers and children when it released 13 year old Hila Rotem but not her mother. They attempted to do the same on Monday, planning once again to release children without their mothers. Intense pressure from US President Biden on Qatar successfully managed to change this, and the mothers have also been released.

Hamas never intended to fully fulfil the terms of its agreement with Israel – at least not without orchestrating several crises along the way. It knows the high value Israel places on the lives of its citizens, compared with the terror organisation, which sanctifies extremist ideology over human life. As such, Hamas has been using the hostages as pawns to emotionally manipulate and hurt Israelis, and to buy themselves some relief from the military attacks against them.

However, so far all of the disagreements have been resolved because they serve the interests of both sides. Despite the difficulties piled on by Hamas, it is crucial for them too that the ceasefire holds. Hamas declared for the first time on Monday that they are willing to negotiate the release of soldiers being held hostage, should the ceasefire be extended. It’s possible that unlike the initial deal, the price demanded for their return will include Palestinian adult male prisoners, among them dangerous terrorists. But these prisoners are not Hamas’s main concern.

Hamas has suffered major setbacks since the start of the war. It needs the time to regroup and take some of the aid, including fuel, that is now entering Gaza, to help them carry on fighting. Their hope is that the temporary ceasefire will result in a permanent truce that may allow them to keep their hold over Gaza.

At the moment, Israel has no plan to allow this. It may face international pressure to stop the war and Hamas will no doubt try to use any way they can to buy more time. The Israeli public want to see all hostages returned and is placing considerable pressure on the government to get this done. But despite these challenges, Israel seems determined to fight on. Any outcome that will allow Hamas to be a major and immediate threat to Israelis is deemed unacceptable.

Israel’s Defence Minister Yoav Gallant said on Monday that the soldiers fighting in Gaza are getting a few days’ rest before the war continues. He told troops that the war will resume within days; when it does, he said, it will be done with greater force and include the entire Gaza strip rather than just the north, where most of the military effort concentrated so far. This could indicate the government’s intent, but it may also be a tactic Gallant is using to push Hamas into agreeing to release more hostages and prolong the ceasefire.

So far, Israel’s war against Hamas has been backed by the US President Joe Biden. The American government has been providing Israel with substantial military aid and support. Biden views Hamas as a threat to his future plans for the Middle East: the organisation stands in the way of a peace deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia, something the President had suggested had triggered the 7 October attack.

Hamas also acts as Iran’s proxy, helping them gain influence and destabilising the Middle East. The terror organisation has also made it impossible for a peace deal between Israel and the Palestinians to ever be reached. Despite his concern regarding Palestinian civilian casualties, pressures from the Democratic party and his strong commitment to secure the release of Israeli hostages, Biden is likely to keep supporting Israel’s effort to destroy Hamas.

It seems likely that this ceasefire will carry on, although it’ll be a bumpy road. Hamas claims that they don’t know where some of the hostages are, even though they themselves handed some over to other terror organisations in Gaza. Among these is a 10 months old baby. Hamas’s tight grip on the Strip makes it implausible that they cannot locate hostages – so this may simply be a tactic to buy more time. Returning all of the hostages would also leave Hamas without much leverage against Israel, which could also be discouraging them from releasing them all.

Israel still seems committed to both the goals it set at the start of the war: eliminating Hamas and returning all of the hostages. This will be very tricky to achieve, but Israel is unlikely to give up, even if the ceasefire means it is a prolonged effort.