There was much to talk about in Rishi Sunak’s conference closing speech. In around an hour on the stage he scrapped HS2, announced a replacement for A-levels, and found the time to ban 14-year-olds from ever buying cigarettes. Yet there was still a huge policy hole in the Prime Minister’s speech – a housing-shaped one.

Outside of the conference hall, you were barely able to move without coming into a conversation about housing. Think tank panels routinely covered it, discussing the rights of renters, the cost of housing and the impact it will have on Tory fortunes. MPs grappled with the tough choices between local Nimbyism and an increasing awareness of the need to build more houses. In one boozy reception, younger Tories and policy workers chanted ‘just get it built’ until the early hours. Yet none of this seemed to reach the PM.

In one boozy reception, younger Tories and policy workers chanted ‘just get it built’ until the early hours

In his 7,500-word speech, there was not a single mention of the housing crisis. No acknowledgment that for every year of this era of Tory government, the country has failed to meet the building targets its leaders set. There was no mention of the reports that we are now apparently 4 million houses short of what we need. There was no sense that this might be driving the desertion of the Conservative party by voters of working age, or of the wider damage a lack of housing might be doing to the economy.

This seems a misstep. The Lib Dem conference was dominated by housing. A well-fought campaign by younger members saw the party reject a suggestion from the leadership to scrap national housing targets. Labour is also expected to spend a lot of time on the issue, with the shadow cabinet increasingly vocal about the need to address the crisis. If this was to be the soft launch of Sunak’s election campaign, he left a significant issue off the table.

Some reticence around housing is perhaps understandable on the Tory side. Sunak’s base, especially those attending conference, is among voters largely cut off from the issue. Older Tory voters usually own their homes, often outright, and have ridden the rising tide of house prices into a comfortable level of wealth. They, and the backbenchers they lobby, are more concerned about blocking developments than encouraging them. Since becoming PM, Sunak has already yielded to their demands to scrap top-down targets.

Yet this omission jars with the Prime Minister’s overall message. This conference, we were told, was about making hard decisions in the long-term national interest. It was a chance to showcase a ‘tough’, calculating Sunak who wasn’t afraid to embrace short-term pain. On housing, however, he failed to do so and certainly refused to push any pain onto the Tories’ Nimby supporters. Rather than embracing a difficult decision, he didn’t even engage with it.

This will hinder the Tories. Across the country, they are struggling with voters of working age. In those demographics, there has been an unprecedented swing against them. The sort that could cost them dozens of seats. So far, the party seems to offer little to tempt them back, especially on housing, where they are feeling the squeeze. Ignoring it completely suggests that the party just aren’t listening – while others are.

Longer term too, he could be hurting the Tories’ chances. If this government ends without making even an attempt to solve the housing crisis, it will be remembered by a generation of voters. The difference will be especially stark if the other parties are making proposals. The historic link between becoming a homeowner and being more likely to vote Conservative could be broken if it’s Labour and the Lib Dems who are seen to enable it.

With a significant polling deficit and time running out until the next election, Sunak will have few set pieces like this conference speech. That he chose to prioritise banning cigarettes over building homes suggests a mindset out of step with the electorate and especially those the party needs to win back. It shows the PM is unwilling to tackle the vested interests and resistance with his own party. It’s both out of touch and weak.

As we push towards the next election, the Sunak campaign will not be able to avoid being drawn on housing. It’s central to the cost-of-living crisis for many voters and has suffused the national consciousness as a major issue. Equally, the opposition are going to want to talk about it a lot. The conference speech was a good opportunity to offer something on this. Instead, it was squandered.

There are many theories about how you win elections. Some say to do it from the centre, others to energise your base. What is clear is that you can’t duck around one of the biggest issues around. Sunak’s speech did just that.