‘Absent’ seems to be the word that most often springs to mind for voters in Selby and Ainsty when asked about their former MP, Nigel Adams. Back in my home constituency for a few days, one of the most common complaints is that he was a Westminster politician who didn’t care about the area; a Boris Johnson loyalist who hitched his wagon to the former PM – and came undone by association.

Adams resigned on 10 June – a day after Johnson – in a row over his removal from the peerages list by the House of Lords Appointments Commission. His is one of three by-elections Rishi Sunak will face on 20 July. Two more could follow courtesy of Nadine Dorries (if she ever formally quits) and Chris Pincher, after his recommended eight-week suspension from parliament.

Although Selby is considered a fairly safe seat, its future is far from guaranteed

In Selby and Ainsty, which, since its creation in 2010, has been regarded as a very safe seat, even formerly loyal Conservative voters appear to be turning against the government they once supported. ‘I think the Tory candidate will be annihilated. I think the fact that Nigel Adams was returned and returned and returned over ten years was just because this is a very, very safe seat,’ said Vice Admiral Bob Cooling when I meet him at his house in Tockwith, the small North Yorkshire village I’m from, for a cup of tea.

‘He didn’t – or the party didn’t – cause sufficient upset or disquiet and worry to defeat him. But I think that this time, given the political context, I’d be amazed if this new candidate [Claire Holmes] gets a decent vote.’ Cooling – who says he had voted for Adams in the past – adds: ‘I think people up here are prepared to, metaphorically speaking, give the Tories a good beating.’

When Keir Starmer visited Selby at the end of June, he shared some choice words about Adams. ‘We’ve had an MP here who did nothing for 13 years. He mentioned buses three times in parliament when it’s one of the central issues – but now he’s flounced off because he didn’t like not getting a peerage. What a disgrace.’ And it’s not just Labour supporters who agree with him. ‘Nigel has [potentially] cost us a plum seat through his own selfish actions,’ says one Tory MP. Speaking to retired miner Brian Wood in Selby – who, in fairness, has never been a Conservative supporter – he explains how he, and many of his friends and family in the seat, see the Tories as out of touch with the concerns of people like him. ‘You can’t trust millionaires to stand up for working people,’ he says – a sign that Sunak’s personal wealth is a problem here in Yorkshire.

In some circles, losing the seat seems almost a foregone conclusion. ‘I’ve given up on all the by-elections. But it could be like 1991 when we lost Ribble Valley and won it back fourteen months later,’ another Conservative MP says. Constituency-level polling by J.L. Partners, released earlier this week, suggested that Labour currently has a 12-point lead in Selby and Ainsty. If that is replicated at the by-election, it would mean a 24-point swing to Labour.

But while on the surface things look good for Starmer’s party, further analysis of the data shows that many voters are still on the fence. Familiarity is a powerful feeling – for Labour, winning over those swing voters who were previously Conservative-leaning will be crucial in the coming week.

Between Adams’s controversial departure – which was deemed ‘pathetic’, ‘disgraceful’ and ‘selfish’ variously by those I spoke to – and Johnson’s less-than-spotless record as PM (lockdown-breaking parties at No. 10 came up, unprompted, in almost every conversation), perhaps it’s no surprise that Tory candidate Claire Holmes seems to be seeking to distance herself from her party on her campaign literature. One flyer that came through our door labels her a ‘local Yorkshire girl’ eight times – and mentions the Conservative party just twice. In her mission statement, she writes about ‘Rishi Sunak’s government’, as if it’s an entity entirely removed from her party.

But does a collapse in Tory support automatically guarantee a Labour gain? In a line-up, Labour candidate Keir Mather’s age immediately singles him out. At just 25, the Oxford graduate would become the Baby of the House – the unofficial title of the youngest MP – if elected. He’s up against Holmes, a lawyer, for the Conservatives, NHS manager Matt Walker for the Lib Dems and Arnold Warneken, the white-haired, white-bearded Green candidate, who was first elected as a local councillor in 1991 – seven years before Mather was born.

I show one retired Tockwith resident a photograph of Mather. ‘Has he finished his O Levels yet?’ comes the response. (I gently point out that ‘O Levels’ might betray the age of the respondent more than the candidate. Luckily, he takes it with good humour.) But another told me that he doesn’t think, at 25, any candidate would have the ‘required life experience’ for the job. This sentiment was echoed across the constituency, where the average age is 50.

Another headache for candidates in the constituency is its size. It’s a large seat made up of smaller, rural villages such as Tockwith, Little Ouseburn and Kirkby Overblow alongside the larger, more industrial towns of Selby and Tadcaster. This variety of settlements means that often, constituents don’t have the same priorities. In the villages, buses are a huge sticking point. ‘What’s the point if there are only two a day?’ one Tockwith resident tells me. But in the towns, talk quickly turns to the NHS and the availability of appointments and services.

Although Selby is considered a fairly safe seat, the fact that recent years have seen large swings away from the Conservatives at by-elections (such as North Shropshire and Tiverton and Honiton) means its future is far from guaranteed.

Perhaps the most comforting fact for the Conservatives is the sheer number of candidates running for the seat: there are 13. In this case, constituents fed up with the direction of the party could be seeking to punish them at the ballot box, but may not necessarily flock to Labour. The split in votes could push a blue candidate into power once more.

Equally, the by-election could fall victim to voter apathy: in the towns of Selby and Sherburn in Elmet, many voters I met said they wouldn’t show up to the ballot box on Thursday week. ‘There’s no point, they’re all liars – on both sides,’ says one Selby resident. Even a win here would not suggest the Tories are on course to victory. But from my conversations, some in Selby are open to the possibility of a second chance for Sunak – but only if he uses the time between now and the next election to listen to their concerns.