We learned this morning just how much the government is struggling to keep its promise to bring down the national debt. But news from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) will be lifting spirits in No. 10. Perhaps it can make good on another pledge: to grow the economy.

The IMF has once again revised its figures for estimated GDP growth, and it’s good news for Britain. Following on from a fairly dramatic lift last month in which the IMF halved its recession forecast for the UK, but still predicted a contraction, the Fund has once again upgraded its forecasts, now predicting 0.4 per cent growth this year. Moreover, the UK has been lifted from last place in the G7 growth race, now ranking above Germany, for which the IMF predicts virtually zero growth.

Unsurprisingly the Treasury is capitalising on this 0.7 percentage point upgrade from the IMF’s Article IV report. Chancellor Jeremy Hunt noted that the IMF ‘credits [the government’s] action to restore stability and tame inflation’.

But this forecast should not be overstated, just as the more negative forecasts should not have been overstated. The IMF has consistently underestimated UK growth over the years – especially after Brexit – so its negative predictions were always a little questionable. On the flip side, the IMF repeats warnings made by other forecasters that the ‘transmission lags’ for interest rates mean that any drag on growth is more likely to be tested in the second half of this year. In other words: just as forecasts rise, they can also fall.

This should serve as a reminder of what forecasts are: attempts to screenshot current circumstances and project them on the coming years (for which the IMF is still predicting fairly lacklustre growth). Forecasts must be viewed in the round, and – despite headlines – the IMF forecasts over the past six months have not been an especially dramatic outlier. The IMF has been predicting slightly less growth than the Office for Budget Responsibility and the Bank of England; now it is predicting slightly more, all within the margin of error.

Even with these forecast fluctuations, the picture remains fairly clear: the UK will see a little bit of growth this year, if we’re lucky. So the question remains: will that make good on Rishi Sunak’s pledge to get GDP up? Based on both forecasts and the data we have so far for Q1, the answer is technically yes. But with real wages still taking a substantial hit and workers feeling worse off despite pay raises, it’s not so obvious people will feel like the economy is growing.