Westminster is back to the Brexit wars this week. Once again, a Conservative leader is trying to finalise a deal with Brussels while facing warnings from their own side that it could prove a compromise too far. On Friday, there was much fanfare that a new deal on the Northern Ireland Protocol could be imminent. Rishi Sunak flew to Northern Ireland to meet with the DUP – where talks proved amicable. Then the Prime Minister met European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on the fringes of the Munich security conference.

However, since then a string of Tory MPs have spoken publicly to raise their concerns and Sunak has been warned that up to 100 of his own MPs could rebel against any deal that is struck. While a vote on a deal isn’t necessary, both MPs and government aides accept they could end up having one regardless. Keir Starmer has already said Labour would back any deal – yet it’s risky for any Tory prime minister to get their plans through on opposition votes.

Talk of a deal being presented to cabinet tomorrow and then in the Commons seems premature

For now, the most common refrain among these politicians – including Boris Johnson and former levelling up secretary Simon Clarke – is that it would be a mistake to abandon the Northern Ireland Protocol Bill legislation that Sunak has put on pause. This Bill is designed to allow the UK to unilaterally rewrite parts of the agreement. Once any deal is announced, government figures anticipate that the criticism would soon turn to how the new arrangement does not go far enough, and therefore the UK is better placed to press on with the existing Bill.

Members of the European Research Group – such as Jacob Rees-Mogg – are saying that Sunak should only continue with his plan if the DUP backs him. It’s worth noting that most members of the ERG supported the original deal, made when Johnson was prime minister, which the DUP did not support – and took great issue with. The soundings from members of the DUP this week suggest they also hold reservations about the new arrangement and the role of the European Court of Justice to rule on disputes.

So, will Sunak press ahead? Talk of a deal being presented to cabinet tomorrow and then in the Commons seems premature. Instead, there is little expectation of much movement at the beginning of this week. Sunak could still proceed, however, as the days progress. The Prime Minister believes the issue needs to be resolved and that the primary focus is securing a deal that is best for the people of Northern Ireland. That leaves him space to get on with the job, even without the support of 100 of his own MPs – or the DUP. If he does, Sunak had better be ready for a backlash.