The Victorian division of the Liberal Party has done it again. Instead of going into the April 1, Aston by-election with confidence, they are defending a narrow, 2.8 per cent, margin starting from behind and looking flat-footed.

Why? Because Labor wedged the Liberals good and proper.

The outgoing member for Aston, former Cabinet minister Alan Tudge, resigned last week. Labor Speaker, Milton Dick – almost certainly in ‘consultation’ with the Prime Minister’s office and Labor HQ – shrewdly called the by-election for the shortest legally-possible campaign period. Labor did it by recycling their failed and mediocre candidate from last May’s general election, and getting her campaign’s red T-Shirts out of somebody’s garage.

Labor knew full well that the Liberal preselection process – involving a convention of eligible party members from the Aston branches plus a slate selected from the party’s State Council – would take weeks to organise and produce a candidate. They also knew that if this process was circumvented by the Liberals’ state Administrative Committee (Admin), there would be anger and ructions across the membership, particularly those very Aston branch members who would be both disenfranchised and still expected to turn out for whoever was chosen by Admin.

So, it has happened. On Tuesday, state president and former Senator, Greg Mirabella, wrote to all party members confirming the Administrative would conduct the preselection, with the declared candidates making their pitches directly to the committee. Many members are angry, even if they accept the necessary urgency.

On Tuesday night, Admin did the deed, and selected third-time lucky preselection candidate, barrister, and Age columnist, Roshena Campbell, over two other candidates. She won 13 votes, to three for each of the two others.

That’s hardly an overwhelming mandate from the party membership, especially in the Aston branches who will be expected to turn out for her campaign without having had a real say in her preselection.

Mirabella presented it as a forced decision. ‘I am writing to you personally on this issue because I know – better than most – how important our democratic processes are, and how sensitive this issue is,’ he said. ‘But the Speaker of the House has chosen a date with very tight timelines, and we could not allow the ALP a clear run while we are without a candidate.’

Wrong. This whole mess could easily have been avoided by a bit of foresight and planning before Alan Tudge announced his parliamentary resignation.

It’s simple. Tudge could have stopped at foreshadowing his imminent retirement – not his actual resignation date, which then would have triggered the processes for the Speaker setting a by-election date – a fortnight ago. Tudge consulted with his leader, Peter Dutton, about his departure, but it’s unclear how much the state organisation was involved.

Then, with Tudge remaining in post for the time being, the party could have called for candidates, organised a preselection convention, and endorsed the chosen candidate. Then, and only then, would Tudge formally resign, with a new candidate in the field and party members united behind (as it’s turned out) her.

What’s more, the Liberals could have worked with Tudge to time his resignation to force the setting of the by-election date at a time much more difficult for Labor, say around May’s federal budget, which is make-or-break for the Albanese government.

A big part of the problem with the Liberals in Victoria is they’ve been in opposition at state level, and in the minority at federal level, for so long that they’ve forgotten how to think tactically, let alone strategically. The federal parliamentary leadership and organisation, however, hasn’t much helped the party’s cause, especially knowing what they must deal with in Victoria.

All in all, the politics of this forced preselection are woeful, and the mess was entirely self-inflicted on the Victorian Liberals by the Victorian Liberals.

It is still likely the Liberals will retain Aston, hopefully with Campbell bringing into the federal party room a new MP of solid centre-right pedigree (although it’s hard to judge from some of her published commentary), real talent, and frontbench potential. But they will do so having inflicted maximum pain on themselves, rather than Labor.

Now the undemocratic deed is done. Mirabella and his Administrative Committee have flexed their muscles, and reminded grass-roots members who’s boss, under the pretext of an emergency that could have been avoided had they actually anticipated the likely Labor response to Tudge’s resignation.

Campbell had the backing of influential Aston conservatives. It’s now up to her to prove to Aston party members that she embodies and stands up for mainstream, sensible, centre-right values and causes, and that she is worthy of their support as the Liberals scramble to defend a small margin while the Albanese electoral honeymoon persists.

Even so, grass-roots Liberal party members, those who man polling booths and stuff letterboxes with campaign bumf – who party elites only bother about when they absolutely have to – deserved better than being both disenfranchised and taken for granted by their parliamentary leadership, state executive, careerists, and factional game-players.

Just whose party is it?

Terry Barnes contested the last Liberal pre-selection in Aston, in 2009