Rishi Sunak today gave a potentially game-changing statement in the Commons, finally committing the Conservatives to effective action when it comes to combating illegal immigration.

The five-point plan unveiled by Sunak for addressing the issue of the Channel boats in the short-term will garner most of the headlines, but it is small beer compared to his most significant announcement.

Electoral salvation for the Tories won’t come via a new ‘unified small boats operational command’, a doubling of immigration enforcement raids, 10,000 new non-hotel accommodation places, faster processing of claims or even a fancy new deal with Albania. These are all incremental measures that will, at best, help at the margins.

If Sunak hasn’t delivered then the words he uttered today will be hung around his neck and guarantee electoral oblivion

Were this list of intended eye-catching initiatives all that Sunak had to offer then his statement would be worthy of the cynicism Keir Starmer showed – especially given all the previous ineffective gimmicks announced when Boris Johnson and Priti Patel were running things.

But the big bang element of the Prime Minister’s statement came in its second half: the promise of new legislation early next year that will, in effect, bring about the United Kingdom’s withdrawal from a global asylum system that he explicitly – and correctly – branded ‘obsolete’.

While he was short on detail as regards the new legislation – and did not specify bailing out of the European Convention on Human Rights or other international treaties – Sunak was clear enough about the changes he intends to bring about.

His new law will mean that if you arrive in the UK illegally you will not be able to remain here, he told MPs. Instead, you will first be detained and then either returned to a home country or a safe country ‘where your claim can be considered’.

And even if it is subsequently found that you were indeed genuinely fleeing persecution you still won’t get to live in the UK because once removed you will have ‘no right to re-entry, settlement or citizenship’.

On top of that, the legislation will see Britain end its currently unlimited obligation to accept genuine asylum seekers. Instead, an annual maximum quota set by Parliament will be imposed. The government will then work with the United Nation High Commission for Refugees to identify those most deserving of sanctuary in the UK. The only way of becoming a refugee living legally in the UK will be after getting accepted onto a ‘safe and legal’ route agreed with the UNHCR.

‘It will not be quick. It will not be easy. But it’s the right thing to do,’ said Sunak. ‘We have to stop the boats and this government will do what must be done. Where we lead others will follow.’

Critics will say that Tory leaders have talked tough before and failed to deliver and of course they’d be right. But this is to miss the point. With an election looming in autumn 2024, Sunak has embraced the most sweeping conceivable asylum reforms while knowing full well that this is a policy area most potential Tory voters care about hugely.

If he hasn’t delivered – or at least been seen to be busting a gut to deliver against massive establishment obstructionism – then the words he uttered today will be hung around his neck and guarantee electoral oblivion. So a battle royale is looming: Sunak and Home Secretary Suella Braverman against the combined forces of the liberal establishment: the House of Lords, human rights lawyers, the Labour party, smaller left-of-centre parties, the BBC, the international no-borders brigade and all their fellow travellers.

To succeed, Sunak will have to step way out of his G7 frat-boy comfort zone and imitate somebody he has always been seen in contrast to: a certain Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson.

Think back to autumn 2019 and the days of the prorogation row. Remember how the ‘surrender act’ was passed by parliament to forbid us leaving the EU without a deal – and how most of the commentariat presented Johnson as a delinquent set for imminent replacement by a ‘Government of National Unity’. And then remember the devastating effectiveness of the slogan ‘Get Brexit Done’ in the ensuing election.

That is the terrain we are heading back towards, with Sunak and Braverman potentially able to argue that another Tory majority based on an explicit manifesto commitment to see through the overthrow of this obsolete asylum system is required. Starmer and his savvy circle of advisers may try not to take the bait and instead focus debate on the economy, the NHS and almost anything else, but the issue is too emotive and important in the eyes of too many voters of both left and right for that to work. The ride will be bumpy but most polling indicates that a large majority of voters are likely to be on Sunak’s side. If he sticks to this mission the Conservatives can win again.

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