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Barometer

Has Neil Ferguson been proved right about Covid?

20 March 2021

9:00 AM

20 March 2021

9:00 AM

Calculated risk

It is a year since Neil Ferguson’s Imperial College team published the paper that inspired the government to call the first lockdown. How good were its scenarios?

— It modelled four Covid-suppression measures: isolating cases for seven days, their household contacts for 14 days, social distancing to reduce household contacts by 75 per cent and the closure of schools and hospitals.

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