Why hasn’t parliament been closed after Health minister Nadine Dorries contracted coronavirus? Why isn’t the government demanding the cancellation of large events and school closures to help limit the spread of the illness? Why isn’t it copying other countries who have introduced much more draconian measures, to the extent that Atlético Madrid fans arriving in Liverpool are watching a game that would have been closed to them in their home country? Health Secretary Matt Hancock updated the Commons on the outbreak this evening, and ended up having to answer all of these questions.

His main defence against these sorts of questions was that the research and modelling suggests the government’s response is the most effective way of ensuring the country is best placed to deal with the pandemic. On why the government hadn’t introduced social distancing measures, he explained:

Here the timing really is critical, because the evidence of past epidemics and past crises of this nature shows that people do tire of these sorts of social distancing measures, so if we start them too early, they lose their effect and actually it is worse. The social science and the behavioural science are a very important part of the scientific advice that we rely on.

Hancock is handling the outbreak well so far and is clearly well-briefed on the details, to the extent that the government doesn’t appear to be in chaos or playing catch-up with the virus. But as he – and the medical experts briefing him – have to rely on modelling to make decisions on when to step up social distancing, he is going to come under increasing pressure to demonstrate whether or not those decisions are the right ones.