Those who follow mainstream media might agree the result in Nepean is a glowing endorsement of Liberal Leader Jess Wilson, an oh well… for the left-leaning independent, and a disaster for One Nation.

This is probably not true.

The Nepean by-election was triggered by the sudden resignation of Sam Groth.

Groth had been a future state premier hopeful, with the conservative faction lining up behind him, until an extraordinary amount of nastiness emerged in the press about his relationship with his wife. This ended in legal challenges and apologies.

Unsurprisingly, Groth originally said he would not contest the state election in 2026: (Emphasis is mine.)

‘After many conversations with my wife and with a great deal of personal thought, I have informed the Leader of the Opposition that I have decided that I cannot continue in Parliament beyond the 2026 election. I have always tried to approach this job with honesty, hard work, and a clear focus on the people who put their trust in me. But when you find yourself having to fight against your own team, it becomes impossible to put those interests first. This has been an extremely challenging period for my family. We took on this role for the right reasons, to contribute to our community, and to try to make a positive difference. That purpose has never changed, but the environment around it has.’

He then resigned in early February.

At the time, Leader Jess Wilson said:

‘He took the time over the Christmas break. When he came back, we sat down and we spoke about it … politics is a really tough game. It’s a really tough environment and sometimes it can take an incredible toll on people’s families.’

It would be difficult to read these comments and take a positive view of the current Victorian Liberal Party.

Even more so if you were to factor in the recent disaster regarding the Moira Deeming preselection. On that occasion, a toxic factional war was on full display and Liberal members have been anything but impressed.

Yes, Moira Deeming was spotted on the ground at Nepean along with Jess Wilson, but that does not mean the damage has been repaired.

Perhaps that is why the Liberals have been so keen to repackage Nepean as some sort of wider endorsement of Jess Wilson and the current executive structure of the party. To them, Nepean is not only a seat held, it is a blow landed in the conservative civil war, both factional and external.

It is up to future voters whether or not this is an accurate reading of what is supposed to be a safe seat byelection that was trodden all over by One Nation.

Anthony Marsh, who could not vote for himself as he does not live inside the boundary of Nepean, won the seat convincingly. As he should, given it has been in Blue Ribbon hands for a long time.

He is the former Mornington Shire Council mayor and has considerable name and brand recognition in the area, which no doubt helped on Saturday.

‘It is the honour of my life…’ said Marsh, who thanked the voters for putting their trust in him.

Speaking after the result, Marsh said, ‘The people of Nepean have said yes for Jess.’

‘It’s been a hard-fought campaign. It’s a result we were hoping for, and I’m so glad I could bring it home for you tonight.’

The independent, who was a bit of a stand-in for the Labor-Teal collective vote, came third on primary votes and second when preferences were allocated.

Labor’s decision not to run a candidate certainly helped boost the independent, but some have also said that poorer working-class voters stepped over to One Nation. That might have been a miscalculation for Labor when looking toward the state election. Now that they’ve voted orange once, they might do it again.

Indeed, you have to wonder about comments in the press calling Nepean a failure or a major loss for One Nation. One Nation was never expected to win the seat. It is new territory for the party, and yet their massive primary vote would have to give the major parties pause. One thing it most certainly was not … is fringe.

It was disappointing to read comments by the Shadow Treasurer, Tim Wilson, (for which he has been ratioed) claiming:

‘A vote for One Nation is a vote to keep Labor in power. In Victoria, a vote for One Nation is a vote for Jacinta Allan. Federally, a vote for One Nation is a vote for Anthony Albanese. Change only comes one way: vote Liberal!’

Panicked much?

To me, this feels desperate and falls along the same tired line as those who used to accuse One Nation of splitting the vote.

A vote for One Nation is a vote to keep Labor in power. In Victoria, a vote for One Nation is a vote for Jacinta Allan. Federally, a vote for One Nation is a vote for Anthony Albanese. Change only comes one way: vote Liberal!

— Tim Wilson (@TimWilsonMP) May 2, 2026

Reading the replies to Mr Wilson is certainly entertaining and in my view hints at why One Nation staged a celebration following the Nepean election, livestreamed by Rukshan on YouTube.

? LIVE: Will One Nation Make History TONIGHT? https://t.co/f8s6RDaJDy

— Rukshan Fernando (@therealrukshan) May 2, 2026

I watched it for hours. The room was a sea of orange. It was full of families and young people, mingling with older Australians. Most certainly, it was not a vision of defeat.

The Liberals certainly won the seat, but will they win the conservative civil war?

This is the only question that matters leading up to the state election.

You can decide if Nepean was a vote of confidence, or a warning.