George Orwell noted: ‘War against a foreign country only happens when the moneyed classes think they are going to profit from it.’

The 20th Century was the time of total war, when societies mobilised whole industries and whole populations to produce weapons. This was dressed up in terms such as ‘For King and Country’ and ‘Defending the Fatherland’. In Vietnam, it was something called ‘The Domino Effect’, in Iraq there was the rather absurd ‘Weapons of Mass Destruction’. In 1969, when Woodstock was raving, El Salvador and Honduras went to war over a football match.

War is always geopolitical and resource-driven, and the defence industry has turned death into a nice little earner.

Most things become monetised sooner rather than later.

Oscar Wilde said that ‘work was the curse of the drinking classes’. Alcohol was the first passion of the newly created working class of the 19th Century. It was only a matter of time before alcohol companies realised addictive things are great money spinners.

Now, when alcohol is small fish compared to the ubiquitous rise of cocaine et al, a new spectre sits on the backs of the industrious classes. Gambling…

Whilst most of the old addictions were socially controlled to some degree (the church, community, work ethic) the transition from community to society has meant the chains are off for corporate greed. Now, football teams display gambling brands and it is all online, just a click away.

The motif in the 21st Century is speed. That’s why cocaine, the internet, and food is all packaged in terms of speed. The faster the better. If you don’t have a personality – no worries – there’s always ‘Coke’. The world is full of ‘short cuts’; the liberal atomisation of man has moved community away from participation into consumerism. The ‘consumer’ can buy everything, do anything. Don’t have a girlfriend? – get an AI version.

Gambling sites are the new $100 billion a year gambling phenomenon. Bored with horses and football? Don’t sweat – bet on war.

The next strike on Iran or a Venezuelan fishing boat?

How many to die in Gaza next month?

Stake your money on it. It’s the logical endgame of liberalism.

The ‘hyper-commodification’ of society.

Whilst some may say war is omnipresent in history, and it is, it seems that moral constraints are being pushed further and further. In one case, for example, the Russian border was nudged around a little in the betting markets without telling the Ukrainians.

It’s not an isolated map move; spotters have shown other instances of possible foul play. For example, one map showed that Russia had taken a railway in Kupiansk before a market resolution. Other maps by competitors did not show the Kupiansk capture. Currently, there is still intense fighting around the railway. Or is there?

These ‘prediction markets’ therefore are also ripe for abuse by insiders with access to non-public information. It’s ‘insider trading’ for civil servants and think tank staffers. Now everyone is at the races.

This was never the intention of those creating trusted maps.

These services were intended for the military and media outlets, not market platforms. They now have to grapple with the problem of prediction markets using this information for betting services, an activity which they oppose and did not consent to.

Legal repercussions for insider trading on prediction markets do not exist. Although barred under the Biden Administration, today’s White House incumbents are strictly anti-regulation. Institutional investment has solidified the industry’s credibility, and the current administration is supportive of prediction markets.

A recent article on MSN noted, companies which offer these prediction-market platforms have faced some resistance from state regulators, interested bodies, and consumers. This has included lawsuits and cease-and-desist actions.

Consequently, the regulators are legally studying their options. They are waiting to see how any existing legal challenges play out or if a change in administration is likely. But don’t bet on these entities going anywhere soon. Like war itself and alcohol, there’s money to be made. The institutional investors have arrived and that’s a big statement of intent for the prediction business. A major distinction between the current regulatory moment and earlier legal bars is the scale and source of capital now involved.

When regulators first moved against these groups, they were effectively on their own, but now some are supported by major institutional investors and big money from operators on the New York Stock Exchange.

Therefore, the presence of large institutional investors will make regulators more hesitant to pursue forceful enforcement actions.

Yet there is a profound danger in all of this. What if the market makers are generals, or even colonels? Could they play literal war games? Warfare and moonlighting. Moving the map or causing a strike in foreign country becomes a betting play.

With AI and war games there is the real danger of massive escalations.

With technology, the dice have been thrown and we appear to have lost control of the Croupier. Of course, war may fade, a peace deal here, a peace deal there and we are back to watching the Kentucky Derby.

But I wouldn’t bet on it…

Brian Patrick Bolger. He has taught International Law and Political Philosophy at Universities in Europe. His articles have appeared in leading magazines such as The Spectator, The Salisbury Review etc and journals worldwide in the US, the UK, Italy, Canada, etc. His new book- ’Nowhere Fast: Democracy and Identity in the Twenty First Century’ is published now by Ethics International Press. He is an adviser to several Think Tanks and Corporates on Geopolitical Issues.