With fresh wind in his sails after his success brokering a somewhat fragile peace in Gaza, Donald Trump has once again turned his attention back to Ukraine. According to reports, the US President’s team has secretly been working on drafting a new plan to end the war. Concerningly, though, once again that confidential plan is being hashed out with Russia – without any input from Ukraine or its European allies.
Details of the plan are, as yet, scant – although a report by Axios suggests that it will be made up of 28 points falling under four rough headings: peace in Ukraine, security guarantees for the country, security in Europe and a roadmap for future relations between Russia, Ukraine and America. There is no detail currently on what proposals the plan may set out for resolving the issue of who will control the illegally Russian-annexed territories in eastern Ukraine; as part of his maximalist demands for ending the conflict, Vladimir Putin has demanded full control over regions such as the Donbass. Nevertheless, what has emerged will be enough to fill Ukraine and its allies in Europe – apparently only being briefed on the plan now – with dread.
In nearly four years of war, Putin’s conditions for calling off his invasion have barely shifted
Work on the plan reportedly began at the end of October. On the American side, discussions have been led by Steve Witkoff, Trump’s special envoy to the Middle East, who has been at the forefront of negotiations with the Kremlin since Trump’s return to the White House. Earlier this year, Witkoff met with Putin five times in the space of six months and was the figure apparently responsible for the miscommunication that meant the US had little to show for the truncated summit between Trump and Putin in Alaska in August. Leading the drafting for the Russians has been Kirill Dmitriev, chief of Russia’s sovereign wealth fund, who, in an illustration of the Kremlin’s economic priorities during discussions with the White House, has been a part of Putin’s delegation on Ukraine since fledgling meetings with the US began earlier this year.
But while this peace plan is being billed as a ‘new’ proposal, a closer look suggests it is anything but. If Dmitriev is to be believed, the US and Russia are essentially reheating the terms discussed by Trump and Putin in Alaska – including on territory swaps between Moscow and Kyiv, as well as relief from US sanctions in exchange for an end to the conflict. ‘It’s actually a much broader framework, basically saying, “How do we really bring, finally, lasting security to Europe, not just Ukraine”’, Dmitriev said.
Three months ago, Putin reportedly shut down the terms suggested to him by Trump in Alaska. Kyiv’s allies will no doubt be anxiously wondering what has changed to make Dmitriev now croon that ‘we feel the Russian position is really being heard’.
In nearly four years of war, Putin’s conditions for calling off his invasion have barely shifted: regime change in Kyiv, barring Ukraine from Nato and recognising illegally annexed territory as Russian. Trump has oscillated between implying he would force Kyiv to give in to Moscow’s demands and arming Ukraine to the teeth if Putin doesn’t drop them. The news of fresh attempts to get a deal over the line will once again raise anxieties that the White House will try to bully and cajole Volodymyr Zelensky into agreeing to terms that are detrimental to Ukraine’s safety and security.
This plan will also be putting leaders on edge in Europe. Few on the continent will like the idea of Washington and Moscow discussing plans for European security, and fewer still will trust Trump or Putin to come up with proposals that hold their best interests at heart. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer was in Berlin yesterday for informal meetings with his German and French counterparts, Friedrich Merz and Emmanuel Macron. No doubt this will have formed part of the agenda for their discussions. Meanwhile, Starmer’s own proposal to Trump to create a ‘Gaza-style’ peace plan for Ukraine seems to have largely been ignored.
The reported aim of the American and Russian delegations is to prepare a final proposal by the time Putin and Trump next meet. Currently, plans for such a meeting are on hold after the US called off a proposed summit in Hungary last month. Nevertheless, with behind-the-scenes conversations between Washington and Moscow continuing to take place, it is unlikely to be long before a new date is set.
Meanwhile, Russia is continuing to make slow, painful gains on the battlefields of Ukraine. In Europe, intelligence services are warning that Moscow’s hybrid shadow war against the West – cyber attacks, drone incursions, sabotage incidents – is escalating. Trump seems to think a simple 28-point deal with Putin will put the whole conflict to bed – Ukraine and Europe are running out of time to show the President how wrong he is.
