Senator Matt Canavan has been chosen as Leader of the Nationals. Imagine predicting that last year when conservatism was deep in the distressing throes of damp moderation.

We endured a full gestation of ‘we need a woman to look modern’ coupled with a Net Zero listening tour that took longer to complete than the Appalachian Trail. Sure, the trauma is fading but voters remain tender and ever-so-slightly suspicious of any ‘promises’ made in the heat of bad polls.

That said, the Angus Taylor-Matt Canavan joint ticket renders a vision of the Coalition far more ‘Howard’ than ‘Turnbull’.

This arrangement is not a solution. It’s potential energy.

What the Coalition does with this combination is anyone’s guess, but it will be the last time they are given the benefit of the doubt.

There also remains concern about moderates sitting in the passenger seat of both regimes – one accident away from power. Let’s hope they keep their hands to themselves and allow the new leaders to steer policy.

Still, this is a decidedly conservative leadership team. It has obviously been decided that this shift to the right is the only way to fend off the existential threat of One Nation. Give conservatives what they’ve been asking for – conservatism.

I know. It’s genius.

When Senator Matt Canavan was announced as leader of the Nationals, our social media accounts received a groundswell of genuine support. Canavan has a natural moral compass, country swagger, and name recognition in a sea of mostly featureless coloured shirts.

Many people wrote in saying they would consider giving the Nationals another go, even though they had joined One Nation. Others were taking a second look at the Coalition. They were leaning over the fence without needing to be bribed or threatened.

And then hundreds and hundreds of angry comments swarmed in. They raged at Canavan, declared their undying allegiance to Pauline Hanson, and flipped the proverbial keyboard.

This feedback came in response to his first press conference as leader. He said:

‘Look, I’m very concerned … I’m very concerned that the identity politics of division that we’ve seen on the Left is creeping into the Right now. I was very critical of Pauline’s comments dividing Australians into different groups, saying – suggesting – that there are “no good” … certain groups of Australians. I totally reject that. Totally reject that. We are all Australians. What unites us as a country is more than what divides us, even when we have these robust debates. We have a wonderful country with wonderful people from all different backgrounds. And I’m sorry, I worry about where Pauline would take this country to an area of more division.’

There are plenty of criticisms to be made of Canavan’s comments.

Blind aspiration and optimism are unwise in our present situation where we face severe domestic threats to safety. We speak of a war economy but there is also a conflict mindset. With terror attacks on home soil and intimidating mobs provoking other religious groups on the street, Hippie sentiments feel a bit off for a serious political Coalition.

I also disagree with him about all of us being Australians united by more than divides us. My position has been firm for more than a decade when I came face-to-face with thousands of self-declared ISIS supporters on the streets of Sydney who were carrying cardboard signs threatening to behead their fellow Australians. Pauline’s current popularity will continue to rise amongst those who sense the story of a united Australia has transitioned into myth.

Canavan also said:

‘I’ll make one more point about One Nation. Pauline has been in politics for more than double the time I’ve been and I struggle to point to a single dam, single road, single hospital that Pauline has delivered in Australia.’

Voters know that One Nation has never been a party of government and has not been given the opportunity to deliver on their policy promises. Voters believe One Nation would, and see major parties as being responsible for good policies being sidelined. The Nationals, as part of the Coalition, have enjoyed many decades of power and decided to sell regional areas out to the grand destructive force of Net Zero and renewable energy. That is not Canavan’s fault, but he inherits the problem nonetheless.

The Coalition have, on many occasions, sneered at One Nation legislation, amendments, policies, speeches, and questions. The extraordinary work put in by their small but diligent team is often discarded with an air of arrogance that seems to waft around the old parties who took their power and their voters for granted.

Instead of declaring a point of difference with One Nation, Canavan sparked the memory of why voters left. This is not my opinion, it is demonstrated within the text of comments left beneath videos of the press conference.

Pauline Hanson finessed her reply on Sky News Australia:

‘If he wants to have a dig at me, have a go at me, you know, it’s not just me, it’s the Australian people out there in rural and regional areas. They want to see us work closely together to address the concerns of the people in this country.’

And so Canavan found himself preaching unity while demonstrating division and Pauline countered a declaration of party war with unity.

Canavan had a few extra goes at his unfortunate message, which went badly.

‘Maybe Pauline can give it, but she can’t take it. I mean, welcome to politics, Pauline.’

This was followed by him repeating his sentiments with more clarity, resulting in a second wave of conservative eye-rolling. Mind you, this is not unexpected for those following his social media accounts. It has been pointed out to him on many occasions that his core supporters dislike his approach of directly attacking Pauline Hanson.

To summarise some of the top comments: ‘F-k bro…’ ‘Stop digging this hole.’ ‘Read. The. Room.’ ‘Yikes.’

The majority cannot be published. Use your imagination.

Sledging aside, the most interesting thing Pauline Hanson said in reply was that she would not have an issue with Canavan being leader because they agree on most things. It is Canavan who will have a problem with the moderates within his own party.

That could be true.

Canavan’s faction is about to be given a geopolitical gift with Labor forced to become immediately pro fossil fuels with petrol and diesel shortages exposing the impracticality of Just Stop Oil! Albanese may have to sign off on new refineries with the Greens formally refusing to support Labor as a silent Coalition partner. If the Liberals are smart, they’ll exploit the chaos to dismantle the Teals.

Returning to the attacks on One Nation. It is my view that this strategy is a critical miscalculation by Canavan.

Winning back voters from One Nation cannot be done by attacking Pauline Hanson. While this tactic works on the vast majority of all political opponents and their movements, there are well-documented exceptions to this rule.

One Nation, for example, would be unwise to host a press conference or put up tweets attacking Alex Antic or Jacinta Price. It would backfire for the same reason Canavan can’t go after Pauline Hanson. Instead, One Nation gets away with criticising Morrison, Abbott, Howard, and even Taylor.

When a conservative figure crosses the party lines in people’s hearts, any attack against them is taken personally by the voters who immediately mark the attacker as an ideological foe.

I don’t make the rules … I observe them.

Pauline would have to do something utterly dire and unforgivable to undo 30 years of goodwill.

Unfortunately, Canavan has made himself a valid target for One Nation although they are probably savvy enough to ignore the bait and focus on Labor and the Greens.

Canavan has a real opportunity to rebuild his party and strengthen the Coalition in general if he focuses on the reasons why people left the Nationals.