Politicians used to be generals because politics was created as an extension of war.
In the decades of peace, we have forgotten the true nature of civilisation and its predictable need for violence, expansion, conquest, and the machine of war itself to prop up domestic power.
We do not put people in Canberra to fanny around with ‘hurt feelings’ legislation and shake hands with a grant-seeking lobbyist who might have a private sector job in their back pocket … they are there to wargame regional security.
Successive and present governments, Coalition and Labor, have exposed Australia to annihilation by deliberately shutting down domestic manufacturing, energy production, agriculture, and defence capabilities. We exist as a sovereign entity at the mercy of US military interests and China’s perception of our usefulness as a trade partner.
Nothing meaningful has been done to change this because every decision is weighed against the minister’s seat instead of the nation’s survival.
The only thing more reprehensible than the dismantling of Australia’s self-sufficiency is the closing down of refineries leaving our entire civilisation vulnerable to foreign wars. We are not like other countries which have to pant over pipelines running through war zones. Australia has every natural resource we need.
Our failure is purely political thanks to generations of politicians who have never taken the threat of war seriously. They swan around in a Utopian fantasy, the fifth iteration of inbred staffers, incorrectly assuming non-aggressive nations will be spared aggression. They consider delusion and ignorance the height of sophistication.
It makes you want to throw history books at their faces (except they lack the ability to read them).
Today, the Energy Minister, Chris Bowen, had to come out and beg Australians not to panic-buy fuel after he admitted we only have 36 days of petrol, 34 days of diesel, and 32 days of jet fuel. The world’s largest oil refinery is burning (no one mentioned the climate crisis) and Labor has no contingency plan other than to ‘hope for the best’.
‘I do understand people’s concerns, but it’s important that people know we do have a good stock of petrol in reserve in Australia. There’s no immediate threat to petrol supplies in Australia…’
You can almost see Bowen sweating. Australia has one of the lowest reserves of any major nation, with the bulk of our supply coming from the Middle East through the South China Sea using ‘just-in-time’ shipments to save money on storage… It’s a double-tap for geopolitical insanity. All the ‘just stop oil’ protesters might get their wish.
It is a shame no one bothered to press Chris Bowen on how fast Australia can recover its refining capabilities in a time of crisis, because America has been giving us plenty of hints with its Drill, baby, drill! agenda. Trump insulated America from Middle Eastern conflict while our media mocked his carbon emissions. Instead of rushing through hate speech legislation, Canberra should be drawing up strategic fuel guidelines for immediate start. But nah… They’d rather censure Pauline Hanson for a second time while mosques in Western Sydney mourn Khamenei.
Let’s talk about world war three, and how some of the most intelligent military minds in the world are preventing it on our behalf.
If Tehran switches allegiance, and leans West instead of East, China’s ability to wage war in the Pacific, centred on Taiwan, is severely hindered.
I have been writing about this for ten years, mostly in the pages of this masthead.
Anyone who has followed the expansion of China’s Belt and Road infrastructure, along with its Maritime Silk Road, will have noticed Beijing retracing the strategic routes of the first and second world wars.
This project operates in conjunction with a range of Asian security agreements, agreed military cooperation pacts, blackmail-style memorandums related to water politics, and deals to openly circumnavigate the powers of the UN in favour of supporting rising dictatorships.
Added to this, we have transcripts of leaked military speeches out of China and intelligence from Japan and Taiwan.
Not only has China publicised their military aggression as part of domestic politics, Xi Jinping began his purge of military personnel to consolidate control after he was given a scare watching a challenge to his mate, Putin. Notably, General Li Qiaoming, the man responsible for drills along the coast opposite Taiwan, was removed at the end of February along with the nation’s top general, Zhang Youxia, and eight other high-ranking generals.
For Donald Trump, the maths on this is simple.
America has the military strength to deter a full-scale war from either China, Russia, or the Middle East.
It cannot fight a war on three fronts simultaneously.
And as for its allies, they are woefully unprepared so we may presume the US bases its predictions largely on military assets it controls.
This predicament is one of the uncomfortable reasons why the US is dragging its feet on Ukraine. Not only is the European conflict not really America’s responsibility, America benefits strategically from every asset Russia pours into Ukraine. Putin is currently weakening himself as a partner for China even though an eventual victory would translate into strength (after a lengthy recovery). The longer this takes, the better. This calculation infuriates Europe, but Europe made a mistake neglecting its collective military responsibility whilst having full knowledge of Russia’s intention. With the money paid by the UK alone into the European Union, they had more than enough resources to take care of their military needs. They spent it on bureaucrats.
As for Iran, under the Islamic Republic, it was not attaining nuclear weapons for the purpose of deterrence. It was an unhinged regime building an arsenal to service its religious goal of annihilating the unbelievers and expanding the Islamic empire.
Iran’s funding and spreading of Islamic terror, regionally and into the West, was merely one part of its plan to destroy Western nations such as Australia. Even considering this alone, Iran presents a major risk factor in a future global conflict that could weaken America internally with attacks while it is trying to fight an external war.
Khamenei made this mission very clear and repeated his violent intentions frequently.
Iran was not a stable entity. It was an expansionist force in the worst possible way.
Crucially, Iran was not ready for a full-scale war.
America forced it into one prematurely with the assassination of Khamenei and at least a dozen of the leadership’s officials.
As automatic orders were executed, Iran has exported its outrage onto its neighbours. By the end of the week, the military assets of Iran will be of little strategic use to China or Russia. The third pillar is crumbling.
The return of Iran to the Persian people, possibly under the Shah but not necessarily, is a fringe benefit for the US and world peace, even though it is dearly important to the Iranians themselves.
But this is a military discussion.
As the dust settles, the US is looking at a situation with Russia partially exhausted from its war against Ukraine, Iran in a tailspin, and China facing a logistic nightmare.
China is in more of a bind than originally thought. As a large, complex, and energy-hungry entity, it will have to do a lot of reshuffling to keep itself functioning internally, let alone contemplating a military offensive on Taiwan. It is dealing with the very real possibility that its oil and gas supplies from the Middle East could be destroyed, delayed, or flipped over into Western control. All of this shortly after it lost its power in Venezuela.
Everyone thought I was crazy when I said Trump bestowed almost a trillion dollars on the Middle East under the heading of ‘AI’ to keep them onside in any potential conflict with Iran. They sat on their hands with Trump’s first anti-nuclear strike, and now they’re actively sheltering US forces. It was a deal that most people missed.
There are plenty of peacemakers in the world.
Particularly conservatives, who think the post-second world war status quo can be held indefinitely with UN sermons and rich trade networks.
The ‘greatest minds’ writing at the end of the 1800s thought exactly the same thing before the onset of the two largest wars in human history. All of their assumptions were proven false.
The truth of human civilisation is that peace is not determined by the peacemakers.
It is set out by those nations bent on war and expansion, and those who successfully thwart them.
Leaders like Trump know that a war will be fought.
No matter how much money is used to pad the conversation.
War is certain.
The question Trump and the West had to ask itself is … what sort of war do they want to fight?
A true third world war with a full-strength Iran, China, and Russia allied with a network of dangerous friends (such as the ‘stans’ and North Korea)?
That’s a war the West loses. That’s a war that sees even Australia, pretending to be Switzerland, overrun. That’s a war that manifests when pacifists and wets are left in charge. It’s the marble tiling of ‘good intentions’ lining the foyer of hell.
That’s a war that ends the rule of democracy, Western Enlightenment, and the empire our ancestors left us in charge of.
Now, I’m sure a lot of delusional university students think a world order governed jointly by Islam and communism will be a wonderful paradise… But for the rest of us, this is a true existential threat. Not a climate ‘give us all your money’ dog whistle, but a genuine shift in global order.
These things happen.
Our future is not a manifest destiny. Everything we have was fought for in war, even if we have forgotten the combatants. Not just the last few world wars, but thousands of wars over thousands of years.
Forget what you think you know about Israel and Middle Eastern politics and consider current events purely from a US defence position.
Trump has taken a calculated risk considering a long-term picture of avoiding an unwinnable war.
My point is that the true lesson of the last two world wars was not about the danger of dictatorships, racism, fascism, or expansionism. There is no original knowledge there.
It is that the concept of the United Nations – the attempt to hold an eternal peace through coercive conversation – creates catastrophic hot spots.
What would be small regional squabbles intensify for decades. Alliances build well beyond normal tolerances. The stagnation of accumulating armies but not using them results in a forward motion toward war that is almost unavoidable.
Nations that sit on their hands, close their eyes, and hum quietly to themselves are not smart, modern, civilised, or sensible. They are placing their citizens in danger by failing to acknowledge military reality.
And commentators who refuse to accept the approach to war by Islamic and communist regimes do themselves a major disservice. Their goal is not peace, it is conquest. They tell you this. It just upsets the common view about peace and love.
Peace is made by those who fight wars in the correct order and at the right time.
Flat White is written by Alexandra Marshall. If you would like to support her work, shout her a coffee over at donor-box.
