One Nation has started campaigning for the by-election to replace the Member for Farrer, former Liberal leader Sussan Ley. This is One Nation’s big chance.

The Division of Farrer was the late Tim Fischer’s electorate, which he represented from 1984 until his retirement in 2001. Mr Fischer served as Deputy Prime Minister from 1996 until announcing his retirement in 1999. Ms Ley has been the Member for Farrer since Mr Fischer’s retirement from politics.

Farrer is located in southwestern NSW and is the state’s second-largest electorate. Major centres include Griffith, Albury, Hay, Deniliquin, and Wentworth. Aside from Fischer, Farrer has been held by the Liberal Party since the electorate was created in 1949.

I would argue that Farrer’s Liberal Party heritage makes it a good bet for One Nation. After all, One Nation has become the blue-ribbon party while the Liberals have been lost in the desert of their own making.

In the 2025 election, there was a swing against the first preference votes for the Liberals, Labor, and the Greens. One Nation had only a slight increase, but the highlight was a nearly 20 per cent swing to the independent candidate, Michelle Milthorpe.

The big problem is that our preferential system tends to favour the major parties. The 2025 election results saw a two-party preferred swing against the Liberals of 3.46 per cent with a corresponding swing towards Labor. This is despite Sussan Ley receiving 43.41 per cent of the first preference votes, Independent Michelle Milthorpe receiving 19.96 per cent, and Labor receiving only 15.09 per cent.

Trumpet of Patriots took 2.37 per cent of the first preferences while One Nation received only 6.6 per cent. While some other Clive Palmer-related party will probably muddy the conservative waters (again!), at least it probably won’t be helping Labor in Farrer.

However, if there was an electorate that would suit One Nation, Farrer would have to be it. One Nation will have to get cracking, though.

One Nation would need to choose a candidate, establish branches (functioning branches, not just on paper), get on every street corner in all the major centres (no mean feat in Farrer), and go for broke. They will also need to brush up on Joske’s Law and Procedure at Meetings in Australia. And real quick. (But it’s not cheap. Copies now retail for over $200.)

There is an optimal solution, of course.

At the 2025 election, Michelle Milthorpe’s team wore orange shirts. They could save a stack of money by adding a One Nation transfer to Milthorpe’s old shirts if they can recruit her to the One Nation banner. Stranger things have happened in politics.

According to recent vox pops, voters in Farrer are ‘disillusioned’ with some referring to their elected representative as ‘Lazy Sussan’.

Ley won in a three-cornered contest in 2001 but the Coalition arrangement since then has left it to the Liberals. If the Coalition had any sense, the Liberals would sit out of this one and let the Nationals have a go. But after 25 years, I doubt the Nationals have the support infrastructure they require. Whether Ley’s supporters can suddenly change gear is another story. Which brings me back to One Nation.

On the TV news, a young Indigenous man said he would vote for One Nation. Such a thought would make blue-haired progressives go feral and get a guernsey on ‘Lefties Losing It’.

While the leftist media are all still telling the Liberals to continue to be Labor-lite, and given that even formal Liberal head-kicker Peter Dutton turned into a big wuss in 2025, it’s not too far a stretch for the machine men in the Coalition to advise an election campaign a la ‘Pissweak World’.

As well as wooing voters, One Nation should be wooing disaffected Liberals and Nationals to form their own version of a Farrer federal electorate conference, along with state branches for Albury and Murray. (Albury and Murray are the state electorates that overlap Farrer.)

Make no mistake, this is One Nation’s big chance. Both Senator Hanson and Mr Joyce need to be front and centre in Albury on Monday with their star candidate.

It is also Angus Taylor’s big chance, but he has his work cut out for him. One thing’s for sure, the next few weeks won’t be boring for conservatives, even if you are sick to death of hearing about the Coalition.

Dr Michael de Percy @FlaneurPolitiq is the Spectator Australia’s Canberra Press Gallery Correspondent. If you would like to support his writing, or read more of Michael, please visit his website.