Jeff Kennett’s influence over conservative voters has diminished since the whole Deeming-Pesutto saga, nevertheless he came out over the weekend suggesting an alliance between One Nation and the Coalition.

Before you ask how we got here, remember this is Victorian politics. They have entered a bizarre limbo in orbit around the State Treasury’s black hole. The laws of politics are breaking down around them…

On the general question of the relationship between One Nation and the Liberals, things have turned from passive-aggressive to aggressive spurred on by idiotic comments from the federal moderates.

In response, Pauline Hanson has declared war on Sussen Ley’s seat of Farrer in expectation of her imminent resignation from Parliament.

The Liberals face a difficult fight, torn between an independent and the orange wave.

The independent candidate has gone to great lengths to address claims from the Liberal Party that she is a Teal.

‘I am an independent candidate for Farrer. The narrative that a Teal Party even exists is the narrative of the major parties to distract voters from the fact that independents exist because they are not doing their job.’

There is another by-election set for Nepean after the resignation of Victoria’s former Liberal Leader, Sam Groth. More (definitely not Teal) independents are scheduled to challenge a parachuted Liberal.

That’s two Liberal leaders, and two by-elections…

Even moderate success in these battlegrounds will set the Nationals on edge. Regional conservatives are furious that the National Party bent to the will of the Liberals on Net Zero and allowed, under previous Liberal regimes, the rollout of destructive renewable energy grids. Labor are merely finishing the job they started.

The first Coalition break-up over this point resulted in the weakest, most useless policy shift in living memory. Essentially, the hard-line Net Zero target was dropped, but everything else remains in place, including the linchpin Paris Agreement.

Voters in regional areas are still staring down the ruin of their home.

This may be why some of the party elders are suggesting caution and peace when it comes to One Nation.

While One Nation is focussing on Farrer and South Australia, Jeff Kennett, the former Premier of Victoria, is suggesting some sort of arrangement in his state to unseat the disaster of Labor.

One Nation is untested in the famously left-wing state, but it could hold significant power in the regions which have some of the most controversial renewable energy projects in the country and the widely despised federal gun laws.

Remember, Victoria is the state that chased Albanese from a conference by tractors…

Instead of a three-way coalition, Kennett speaks of a possible preference deal to unite the forces of the right against the greater evil of Labor.

The Coalition is polling at 29 per cent, outstripping the dire Labor government (on 23 per cent). One Nation, remarkably, sits at 21 per cent. Hardly fringe. Possibly even helpful.

Though any sort of deal seems a long way from what we have seen of the new leadership. Victorian Liberal Leader Jess Wilson skipped out of a conference with Barnaby Joyce after the Premier made the mere suggestion that the Liberals weren’t allies of the LGBT community because of their support of One Nation on a federal bill. (None of it particularly accurate.)

The Victorian Liberals are more scared of One Nation than the Greens, so it remains to be seen whether they will take Kennett’s advice.

‘I think there is a realisation that the Labor government under Andrews and Allan were corrupt from the moment they got into office, have been corrupt, and remain corrupt in terms of the deals they’ve done at the public expense.

‘I can’t believe that Pauline Hanson and her team would ever support corrupt behaviour, and I would like to see the Liberal Party and the National Party talk to One Nation and hopefully come to an agreement where they exchange preferences.’

The problem, we may suggest, is hardly likely to be One Nation but rather the Liberals who won’t share a stage with the former Deputy Prime Minister because he wears an orange shirt.

One Nation has made it clear, repeatedly, that Labor and the Greens will be last on their tickets and over the years they have called for the right to unite. In this, they were ignored by the smug Coalition who preferred to refer to them as ‘fringe’ (or worse).

Although the two parties have started being more friendly with preferences, if there is a preference deal to be made in Victoria, it will likely cost the Liberals something in return.