Stephen Flynn’s Westminster group may consist of only nine MPs, but the SNP has still managed to make its mark in London. Flynn’s performance in Prime Minister’s Questions – when his group get a question – has marked him out as a savvy political operator and earned him grudging respect from politicians from all sides of the Chamber. The SNP has used parliamentary procedure to pile pressure on Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour government – the Gaza vote last year, for example, saw the PM suspend six politicians, one of whom has now gone on to form her own new party. Ahead of an election year in Scotland, the SNP has also highlighted Labour’s weaknesses (on issues like new oil and gas licenses, of which Flynn is in favour) north of the border.

Last year’s general election decimated the SNP group in Westminster. The exit poll suggested the Nats could be left with just 10 MPs after years of holding most of Scotland’s Westminster seats – and the real result was worse still. It’s something that remains a sore point for the party, and Flynn as its leader. ‘The initial fallout was bleak,’ he tells me on The Spectator’s Coffee House Shots podcast. The group’s budget was cut drastically – and it left the group with tough choices when it came to jobs. ‘I had to do a lot of redundancies shortly after the election,’ Flynn says, ‘which for staff who helped all of us to such a great degree in the run up to the election… that was pretty tough. It was pretty brutal.’

Flynn has earned himself a reputation for ruthlessness

Once the third largest party in the Commons, Flynn’s group has been forced back in the Chamber, to benches near the Independent Alliance MPs and Reform – where some unlikely friendships have formed. Nigel Farage told an Aberdeen press conference that his MPs actually got along with the SNP representatives fairly well – although it’s not an admission Flynn is keen to make himself. ‘This is one of those occasions where it’s definitely Nigel’s words and not mine,’ he laughs. How would he characterise the relationship between the SNP and Reform UK? ‘I like to think that they sit and watch us and try to learn how to be as good and effective in the chamber as what I think we are,’ he replies, grinning:

We’ve managed to push the Labour party into some pretty challenging positions on numerous occasions in the 18 months or so since the last general election. So maybe Nigel’s watching on fondly in that he’s watching a group of politicians who know how to put themselves about in Westminster – which I’m not entirely sure if he’s done effectively in the Chamber.

The diminished SNP group has arguably allowed Flynn to rise to prominence in Westminster – although even before the election his performance in parliament had led those in then-prime minister Rishi Sunak’s team to admit some admiration for him. And in the powers reserved to Westminster, the Commons has significant influence over events in Scotland – from energy to immigration to a potential independence referendum.

But despite all this, Flynn is standing in Scotland next year and hopes to move to Holyrood. ‘The opportunity to potentially go and be a part of shaping Scotland’s future through [the Scottish] parliament was just too good an opportunity to turn down,’ he says. Of course, the seat of Aberdeen Deeside and North Kincardine wasn’t exactly offered up to Flynn. It would be putting it mildly to state that the area’s current MSP, Audrey Nicoll, was taken aback to learn that Flynn was gunning for her constituency. ‘I was completely blindsided,’ she told the Times. ‘I was confused and unsettled.’

Flynn has earned himself a reputation for ruthlessness, though when pressed on the extent of his personal leadership ambitions – it has been widely speculated that his Holyrood move is part of a plan to go for the top job – he is coy. ‘It’s the question that kind of haunts me, follows me about, despite me having never said anything [about becoming party leader],’ he laughs. ‘I can’t foresee a scenario at anytime soon, where the SNP is in a position where John Swinney isn’t the leader.’ That’s not quite a no. He is fast to pledge his loyalty to the First Minister, however, and says that after Nicola Sturgeon resigned in 2023, he urged Swinney to take the job. On Sturgeon, he doesn’t say much. They haven’t spoken recently, nor has he sought advice from her about a Holyrood gig. Has he read her memoir? ‘I’ve not actually had the time to read it yet,’ he confesses. ‘Maybe over Christmas.’

The Westminster leader is known for his dry humour and straight-talking style in the Chamber, but what does Flynn get up to when he’s not focused on politicking? ‘Just before we started recording, I said to you, it’s my boy’s birthday. And that’s how I keep track of how long I’ve been an MP,’ he laughs. ‘I’ve got two little kids and my relaxation time is spending time with them. It sounds a bit cheesy and all the rest, but it’s true.’ And there’s the football, of course, with Flynn having been criticised in the past for his commitment to the Tartan Army. On Scotland qualifying for the World Cup, Flynn notes wryly: ‘If we win enough games, I think we can beat England in the quarter-finals.’

Next year’s Scottish parliament elections could see an insurgent party swoop into second place and the SNP emerge as the largest party once again. Flynn is confident – his party’s independence strategy states that a mandate for a second referendum will be achieved if the SNP wins a majority of seats in the Holyrood poll. ‘It’s a really high bar we’ve set ourselves,’ Flynn says.

The electoral system in Scotland has only been broken once in terms of a majority being achieved. That was Alex Salmond’s government in 2011. And we are we’re learning from history. We’re trying to repeat what was done before, maybe even go beyond that in terms of number of seats as well.

It was thought last year that Scottish Labour could usurp the nationalists, but recent polls suggest that is increasingly unlikely. In fact, Flynn believes the Holyrood election could spell the end for Starmer. ’I don’t think we should downplay or underplay the significance of the Scottish elections in that regard,’ he says. ‘I’m pretty confident if we win and we win a majority, then that will be the moment at which the Labour party moves on from the current leader and his acolytes at the top.’ With only six months to go, it won’t be long before Flynn’s theory is put to the test.

Listen to the full interview on Coffee House Shots: