Hopes for a temporary ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas during Ramadan were dashed over the weekend, when it became apparent that no such deal would be reached before the beginning of the holy month. Weeks of tough negotiations that raised optimistic speculations about a deal have so far produced no tangible results.

Hamas has hardened its position on a temporary ceasefire that would include the release of Israeli hostages in return for Palestinian prisoners. This came as no surprise to Israeli negotiators; Israel has been warning for weeks that Hamas is set to reject a deal while attempting to provoke violent clashes between Palestinians and Arab-Israelis, and Israeli security forces during Ramadan. Tensions run high in Israel during Ramadan every year. This year, the war could make things much worse.

Hamas hope that violent clashes would increase pressure on Israel to stop the war

Hamas hope that violent clashes, especially if they involve civilian casualties, would enrage the international community and increase pressure on Israel to stop the war. A one-sided ceasefire means that Hamas will get to keep the Israeli hostages captive, rebuild itself as the ruling force in Gaza and continue to pose a considerable threat to Israelis.

In trying to avoid violent clashes during Ramadan, Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu did a rare thing; he stood up to demands from his far-right nationalist minister for national security, Itamar Ben-Gvir. Ben-Gvir wanted to impose draconian blanket bans on worshippers. The defence and security establishment urged Netanyahu to reject those, fearing such measures could fuel anger and unrest. Following a prolonged period of typical procrastination, Netanyahu decided not to impose restrictions that stray from existing ones.

But there may still be trouble ahead. There are still concerns that the police may receive contradictory instructions and act in ways that could lead to disorder, especially with Hamas already acting to inflame the situation.

The Israeli government has also indicated that, if a deal is not reached, it will start a military offensive in Rafah. The southern city, located near the border with Egypt, is the last Hamas stronghold, where four Hamas battalions operate from. It’s considered an essential target for Israel in order to achieve its objectives of ending Hamas’s control of Gaza and destroying its military capabilities. However, Rafah is also where over one million Palestinians have found refuge, and an offensive will pose a major risk to them and worsen the humanitarian crisis in Gaza.

It now remains to be seen if Israel will start an offensive, and if so, how one will be carried out. United States president Joe Biden has expressed serious concerns with Israel’s plans and has advised against them. His frustration with Netanyahu, with the number of civilian casualties and with conditions in Gaza, is growing. Although he is clear in his continued support for Israel’s right to defend itself against Hamas, he seems convinced that Israel’s strategy is the wrong one.

In an interview to MSNBC on Saturday, Biden said in reply to a question about a Rafah offensive that he would ‘never leave Israel. The defence of Israel is still critical. There’s no red line I’m going to cut off all weapons…’. But he carried on to say that there are red lines to do with civilian casualties, without going into detail about the consequences of crossing those lines. He warned that Netanyahu ‘must, he must pay more attention to the innocent lives being lost as a consequence of the actions taken.’

Although Biden would ideally like Israel to abandon its plans in Rafah, an offensive isn’t likely to lead to a breakdown in relations between the two allies if Israel takes greater care not to harm civilians. This could be done either by evacuating civilians into refugee camps outside of Rafah, or by employing tactics involving limited forces in surgical operations against Hamas with more limited use of air-power. But this comes at a cost: such a strategy will place Israeli ground troops at greater danger, and Hamas terrorists could infiltrate outside of Rafah disguised as civilians. To placate the US, these are concessions that Israel may well have to make.

American efforts to reach a ceasefire deal in Ramadan have been considerable. However, growing criticism of Israel from its allies – including from Biden and Britain’s Foreign Secretary Lord Cameron – undermine those efforts by encouraging Hamas to toughen its demands and refuse to accept a deal. If Israel’s allies truly believe that Hamas has to be defeated and want a ceasefire that will alleviate the crisis in Gaza, then more emphasis should to be placed on Hamas and on the countries that support it, provide its leaders with safe refuge and facilitate its ability to fight on, than on public criticism of Israel.