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Flat White

Treasurer’s antifragile Budget just another black swan

25 March 2024

10:30 AM

25 March 2024

10:30 AM

The Treasurer is like a boss who enthusiastically makes everyone’s life a misery with every new fad. Only this time, he is more than a decade behind after no doubt having read Nassim Taleb’s book, Antifragile.

Taleb’s earlier work, The Black Swan, pointed to ‘unknown unknowns’ – all swans in Europe were white therefore there were only white swans – until black swans were discovered in the New World.

The black swan metaphor encapsulates what Herbert Simon referred to as ‘bounded rationality’, where we make sense of the world based on our own limited sphere of existence, and often at our own expense.

The idea...

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