New Hampshire votes tomorrow and today Nikki Haley has just two planned events. She has a morning meet-and-greet in the city of Franklin and a ‘get out the vote rally’ in Salem this evening.

Nobody could accuse Haley of not working hard. She’s famously an industrious woman. But given the make-or-break nature of tomorrow’s vote, her campaign seems strangely lacking in urgency. Yes, she’s spending a fortune on campaign ads. Yes, she’s engaging in slanging matches with Donald Trump, which is a useful fodder for an increasingly desperate media. She’s accused him of being ‘clearly insecure’ and having ‘temper tantrums’ after he mocked her unusual name.

But her campaign just isn’t catching fire in the way that anti-Trump Republicans hoped it would. Optimistic analysts have been trying very hard to play on the historic unpredictability of New Hampshirites and their more independent and liberal instincts.

But New Hampshirites, because they are so libertarian and independent, dislike being told what to think and the MAGA movement is very strong in New Hampshire, as it is almost everywhere in America.

Haley’s team regarded a crowd of about150 at one of her events on Friday as a sign of ‘energy’ and ‘excitement’. Donald Trump fills out stadia across the state and nobody bats an eyelid. ‘She’s going to get smoked’, said Chris Christie, in a hot mic moment as he announced his withdrawal from the race before Iowa. This seems to be a truth that everyone knows and nobody outside Trumpworld is willing to say in public.

The question, then, is when does she do what Ron DeSantis did yesterday: bow to the inevitable and pull out of the race?

Trump is meant to have the woman problem. In fact, Nikki Haley does

There are rumours in political circles that Republican donors are already moving away from Haley. ‘This Republican race is a wrap’, one experienced anti-Trump campaign adviser said yesterday. ‘I think she pulls out on Wednesday morning.’

If Haley doesn’t come within ten points of Trump tomorrow, why would she go on to face a deeper humiliation in South Carolina, her home state? Pundits love to talk about ‘paths’ to victory. But Haley’s campaign is in danger of simply slamming her head repeatedly into a Trump wall. What’s the point of that?

Trump is meant to have the woman problem. In fact, among New Hampshire Republicans, Nikki Haley does. A recent JLP poll puts her on 37 per cent among New Hampshire women, compared to 54 per cent for Trump. She fares better among men, intriguingly: only four points behind according to the same poll.

Haley does beat Trump among undeclared voters, by 59 per cent to 34 per cent. But given the enthusiasm gap between her effort and Trump’s, it seems highly unlikely that undeclared voters will stop Trump winning tomorrow or in any upcoming primaries.

Which leads us to the next question: if she drops out on Wednesday, will she endorse Donald Trump?