Let’s face it, for a number of reasons, Albo is toast. One too many overseas trip, way too much bonhomie with the leader of the communist world, the ignominious defeat of the Voice, faux concern for the cost of living, released immigrant criminals running around the country – it all adds up.

Of course, honeymoons always end. But most don’t come crashing down in the way it has for our dear leader. One minute the king of the castle and poster boy of the international circuit crowd and then a humiliating fall. Was this always the likely outcome for the boy from inner-Sydney raised in public housing who made good – at least in politics?

(By the way, Albo makes far too much of his back story as do a number of other ministers. We shouldn’t judge people by where they came from or the struggles they faced or are perceived to have faced. It’s about how they are currently performing. The weepy stories become tedious very quickly.)

While the mainstream media have been slow to accept that Albo is clearly on the skids – recall all that rubbish discussion about the lack of political implications of the Voice defeat – there is now a growing chorus about his fall from grace. Needless to say, some of the commentary is quite panicked because of the associated risk that Peter Dutton could become prime minister. For the old Fairfax hacks, ABC ‘journalists’ and the Guardianistas, this really is a bridge too far.

It is worth bearing in mind here the technical complications of getting rid of Albo.  There is the recent history of the pass-the-parcel exercises in PMs and their distinct failure to impress the electorate. To be sure, Morrison did win in 2019, although Shorten’s fatal, radical campaign was the main explanation for that outcome.

Under rules established by the Ruddster, Labor must ballot its members in the event of a contested leadership battle once there is a spill among the parliamentary members. The key here is ‘contested’. With a stitched-up deal, it is possible that if a spill succeeds and Albo simply bows out, a new team can be installed without an explicit contest.

So who is in the running? Bear in mind here there will need to be a mix between the left and right as well as between the states for the two top jobs.

This narrows the options, although it’s not clear that anyone actually stands out in terms of leadership skill and policy acumen.

It’s clear that Shorten has never given up his leadership ambitions. He has remained in parliament and holds a ministerial position. While he is ostensibly in charge of forcing a degree of fiscal sustainability onto the NDIS, including by negotiating with the state governments, it’s not clear he has ever had his heart in the project.

He doesn’t want to pick fights with anyone, he doesn’t want to be unpopular, he doesn’t want to be the minister who crimps the entitlements of those on the NDIS or those who want to be. He was also suspiciously quiet during the Voice campaign.

As a person from the right, he will need a buddy from the left to launch a joint ticket.  Enter Plibbers as a possible joint candidate, although she may well prefer the top job. She probably could have knocked off Albo last time around given that the grass-root members would always have voted for her rather than him. But she had family issues at the time and so the timing wasn’t right.

She must also harbour a degree of bitterness towards Albo, who took away the education portfolio from her and plonked her in the trickier environment one. On the face of it, it looked like someone keen to demote a competitor. However, she has been able to use her position as environment minister to maintain her public presence.

We must not forget Jimbo here because he is probably the best communicator in the government even though he mainly spouts rubbish. The fact that he’s from Queensland is probably a plus given Labor seriously needs to improve its game in that state. He is from the right but doesn’t have much support in the parliamentary party.

He has got himself into a spot of bother with the cost-of-living crisis and his seeming inability to make the pressures go away for ordinary folk. He keeps rattling off all the measures the government has introduced – cheaper childcare, bulk billing incentives, free Tafe, energy rebates, etc – but most of these don’t apply across the board. Most people don’t have children in childcare, for instance.

Sadly, for Jimbo, too many people take a simple Dickensian stance towards cost of living: money in each week, money out each week.

The additional danger for Jimbo in running through the list of measures – Albo does it too – is that people start to itemise measures that would suit them. Lower petrol prices, lower grocery prices, lower rents, lower council rates and so it goes.

The economic reality for Jimbo is that giving into any of these demands runs the risk of adding to demand, thereby increasing the likelihood that the Reserve Bank will raise the cash rate again. It’s a tricky message – look at all the good things we have done to tackle cost-of-living pressures but don’t ask for any more because they could just add to cost-of-living pressures.

Then we come to B1 and B2. Let’s face it, both probably harbour leadership ambitions and have tickets on themselves. Bowen and Burke are both from the right and that is a problem. Both could not be accommodated in the two top jobs and both are from New South Wales.

As Climate Change and Energy Minister, Bowen has, from the get-go, tried to attract support from the left by implementing a raft of radical climate policies, with taxpayers picking up the tab and people in the regions particularly bearing the cost. It’s pretty clear that he does not have wide electoral appeal and so he can probably be ruled out as a contender.

Burke will have been disappointed that he wasn’t able to ram his egregiously pro-union legislation through the parliament this year. When it happens, he will count this ‘achievement’ as a big win. For all those gig and casual workers and independent contractors who are likely to lose out, these effects will only emerge slightly down the track. Again, Burke would not seem to have any strong electoral appeal. And like Bowen, he is in a tricky position in his seat, watching the large number of Muslim voters venting their ire about the Israel situation while maintaining an ethical position himself.

The mobile phone networks will be jammed this coming summer as Labor’s factional heads and groupies make a lot of calls.  No doubt, Albo will attempt a Lazarus as he recovers from his exhausting, but largely pointless, international travel itinerary. At least, it will be fun for the Speccie crowd to observe.