For the past few weeks, the US House Speaker’s chair has sat empty. Kevin McCarthy was ousted from the position on 3 October amid accusations from some Republicans that he was colluding with Democrats in a ‘secret deal’ to assist Ukraine. While the position has been vacant, critical legislation, including aid for Ukraine, has not been able to pass. But with the election of Mike Johnson, an ally of Donald Trump who is known to be Ukraine-sceptic, US politicians may have chosen their stance on the conflict.

This development follows a decline in support for aid to Ukraine among both Democratic and Republican voters. Republicans for Ukraine, an advocacy group seeking support for Kyiv within the party, gave Johnson an ‘F’ (the lowest score) on their so-called report card, which grades congressional Republicans on their votes for aid and statements about the war. While Johnson supported providing lend-lease assistance to Ukraine, he consistently advocated for reducing aid to Kyiv. Furthermore, Johnson is a loyal Trump supporter; the former president is eyeing a return to politics and often discusses the idea of Ukraine trading occupied territories with Russia for peace.

Johnson has consistently advocated for reducing aid to Kyiv

Johnson was asked about his stance, as the 56th House Speaker, on increasing aid to Ukraine. He responded: ‘We are going to have conditions on that, so we’re working through… We want accountability and clear objectives from the White House, and we will have productive discussions.’

Joe Biden has already urged Johnson to act quickly to secure additional funding for national security needs, including aid for Ukraine. This aligns with a White House bill proposal, which includes about $61 billion in emergency funds for Ukraine and $14 billion for Israel. Concerns have arisen that some US Senate Republicans may seek to separate aid to Israel from aid to Ukraine due to the decline in popularity of supporting Kyiv, as reported by the Wall Street Journal.

Passing an aid package of this magnitude will be a tough sell. Until recently, the President had said the US would support Ukraine for ‘as long as it takes’, explaining it to voters in terms of the struggle for democracy and the negative consequences for the US if Russia wins. But his arguments haven’t been entirely effective, given the lack of progress in the Ukrainian counter-offensive, which suggests the war may drag on for years.

Biden has now shifted his messaging, saying instead that ‘we will help Ukraine to defend itself’. Politico reported that US politicians are being advised to highlight the fact that the support for Ukraine will create jobs for Americans, such as in the defence industry. A significant part of the money that Biden proposes to allocate to Ukraine will be spent to replenish American weapons warehouses. Emphasising these facts could potentially win over Americans who may not be inherently pro-Ukrainian.

Biden’s aid package could provide Ukraine with crucial support until the next US election. With the uncertainty of Trump’s return to the political stage, there’s a chance this could mark Kyiv’s final assistance from its most significant ally. Ukrainians can only hope that this is a scenario they never have to confront.