The explosion that killed hundreds in the al-Ahli hospital in Gaza has created a critical moment that may change the course of the war. Hamas claims that an Israeli air strike was behind the explosion. Israel, on the other hand, claims that the explosion was a misfired missile from the terror group Palestinian Islamic Jihad.

Israel has not fought a war on two fronts since 1973. While it is prepared for such scenario, it will be difficult, dangerous and costly

Israel has released evidence today to support their claim, including a radar image showing that near the time of the explosion, Hamas and Islamic Jihad were firing missiles into Israel, and that the trajectory of their missiles went directly over the hospital. Al Jazeera seems to have been filming the area and there is clear footage showing that, at the time of the explosion, Israel was not conducting aerial or artillery strikes. The footage shows a long-range missile, possibly an R-160, which is manufactured by the Islamic Jihad, falling to the ground and causing a large fire. This is not the first time that a missile has misfired, especially one produced by terror groups in Gaza.

President Biden has just touched down in Israel – just as the country is considering its options in a potential ground assault on Gaza. Biden was also set for a summit in Jordan with President of the Palestinian Authority Mahmoud Abbas, Egyptian President El-Sisi, and Kind Abdullah of Jordan, but since the explosion the summit has been cancelled. Anti-Israeli protests have erupted in Jordan and public anger has grown in Egypt and elsewhere in the Middle East. Evidence produced by Israel is unlikely to change that, even if Biden, as he has done this morning, sides with Israel. Arab leaders are more likely to adopt the Hamas line, even if they happen to have a good relationship with the Jewish state, due to their public’s rage.

This is a dangerous situation for Israel. On the northern border with Lebanon, the terror organisation Hezbollah, which is a proxy of Iran, has been preparing for war. It has spent the past week carrying out low-intensity strikes that have caused casualties but have not prompted Israel to retaliate heavily. Hezbollah has been waiting for Iran to decide its next move – either keep the fighting at the same intensity or initiate a larger attack that would result in war. Public anger towards Israel could see Hezbollah and Iran escalate.

The US has sent its largest aircraft carrier, the USS Gerald Ford to the region. The super-carrier holds thousands of personnel, over 75 F-35, F-16 and F-15 fighter jets, and some of the world’s most advanced weapons systems. The US has also moved a second carrier into the Mediterranean. Its main aim is to deter Iran and Hezbollah from getting involved in the war.

The US has been imploring both sides to avoid an escalation in violence, but the hospital explosion has made the situation much more volatile. If war breaks out with Hezbollah, the US will have to decide if, and in what capacity, it should intervene. Axios revealed yesterday that two US officials said that Washington ‘is not fooling around’ by sending its military to the region. There is a risk of conflagration.

Israel’s plans now hang in the balance. Biden has already asked for caution should a ground operation take place. He may be even more reluctant about it now – even if he is convinced that Israel did not cause the explosion. If Israel wants to bring an end to Hamas’s rule in Gaza, a ground operation is vital, but it needs the backing of its allies. A new front in the north may also compromise a Gazan ground operation if personnel and equipment need to be diverted to push back Hezbollah. Israel has not fought a war on two fronts since 1973. While it is prepared for such scenario, it will be difficult, dangerous and costly.

The tragic explosion that has killed hundreds serves no one but Hamas. The terror organisation, whose lack of concern for the lives of Palestinians is apparent, will now receive much more support from neighbouring countries. Pressure and criticism is mounting on Israel, making it harder to remove Hamas.