As the skies darken over Rishi Sunak’s embattled government, with ministers being fired or placed under investigation, opinion polls dire and few signs of better times ahead, Tory optimists are (somewhat desperately) searching for signs that all may not yet be irretrievably lost for their party.

The hopeful precedent that they have come up with is the 1992 general election. That year, things did not look good for John Major, the man who had replaced Margaret Thatcher under controversial circumstances just two years before. The opinion polls predicted a narrow but clear victory for Labour leader Neil Kinnock until Major, then a much-mocked figure, got on a soapbox – literally – and appealed to the public to be given a chance. His quixotic gesture caught the public’s imagination as the traditional British sympathy for the underdog shone through.

Then, all too characteristically, Kinnock shot himself in the foot by going over the top at a public meeting in Sheffield just before polling day: he seemed to be prematurely assuming victory by repeatedly shouting ‘Awright!’ at delirious followers. The election proved Major right and the polls wrong. Though the Tory majority was reduced from 102 to a narrow 21, Labour had failed to break through and the Tory message, that it was the only party to be trusted with the economy, was vindicated.

Keir Starmer’s fans might concede that he is dull, but it can be reasonably argued that he doesn’t frighten the horses – or the voters

Sunak’s supporters, clutching at straws, are suggesting that history could repeat itself. They’re hoping that, in the privacy of the polling booths next year, enough ‘shy Tories’ will look at Labour and decide that they prefer Conservative competence after all. At a cabinet away day last week, the party’s election guru, Isaac Levido, reportedly briefed ministers that they should lock in for the year and toe the line, keep their heads down and not get distracted by their poor showing in the polls. But he thinks that the Tories’ template for success next year will be similar to Major’s: convincing the public that, although times may be tough right now, the Conservative party will keep the country on the right track.

But the problem with this blue-sky scenario is that the Tories of today look far from competent. Indeed, after almost 100 days in office, the difference between the present Prime Minister and his two predecessors – the disgraced Boris Johnson and the derided Liz Truss – is becoming difficult to discern.

There is another vital difference between 1992 and today. Labour is not led by an excitable Welshman with a fondness for grandstanding but by a cautious grey lawyer who looks before he leaps. Even Keir Starmer’s keenest fans might concede that he is dull, but it can be reasonably argued that he doesn’t frighten the horses – or the voters.

An uncomfortable fact overlooked by the Tory optimists is what followed the 1992 triumph within a few short months. Black Wednesday in September of that year saw the government forced to withdraw the pound from the European Monetary System (the precursor to the euro) throwing millions of Britons into mortgage poverty – and utterly destroying the Tory reputation for economic competence.

The rest of Major’s inglorious reign was passed under the shadow of a Tory civil war over Europe and a series of minor scandals that highlighted Tory sleaze at its worst. It culminated, in 1997, in Tony Blair’s Labour landslide, which kept the Conservative party out of power for more than a decade.

If Conservatives are really looking at the example set in 1992 for a light at the end of their long, dark tunnel, they would be well advised to be careful what they wish for.