In 1965, The Byrds announced themselves to the world with their immortal hit Turn! Turn! Turn! The lyrics, which most people will recognise instantly, are from the book of Ecclesiastes.

Tradition has it that the book was written by King Solomon, who was noted for his wisdom. Amongst the other aphorisms contained within the book is another one that most people will recognise – there is nothing new under the sun.

This is as true for politics as it is for other walks of life. What happened in the Victorian election has happened before, in New South Wales in 1981. The question is this – is the Liberal Party prepared to learn from history?

In 1981, Neville Wran had just won his third consecutive election, beating the hapless Bruce McDonald and finishing up with 69 per cent of the seats in the lower house which also happens to be remarkably similar to the majority that Daniel Andrews will finish up with.

But the parallels don’t end there. Wran, like Andrews, was a dominant and intimidating personality, and also like Andrews, believed by many to be a bit off. There was one remarkable episode of Four Corners where a whistleblower made astonishing allegations regarding an embezzlement trial. This spawned a Royal Commission, and although Wran was cleared, many people felt that he’d dodged a bullet (although Murray Farquhar was not so lucky).

After this election, the Liberal Party was utterly directionless. The ALP had actually picked up seats in this election, known as the second ‘Wranslide’ (it even rhymes with ‘Danslide’). As Bruce McDonald had lost his seat, they had to elect a new leader, and the baton was passed to the bespectacled and bookish John Dowd. I was a very young man at the time, but it was immediately obvious to me that his timid manner was no match for the Wran colossus.

This state of affairs persisted for the next few years. The overwhelming view amongst conservatives was that Wran was simply unbeatable, and they’d have to wait until Wran retired before they would get a look into government again. It appeared that no one had learnt from the success overseas of Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan, both unashamedly conservative, and both strong and effective leaders.

And then along came Nick Greiner. He had contested the leadership after the 1981 election, after having been in Parliament only a year, but was defeated by the more seasoned Dowd. Two years later, however, things were different. Dowd’s ineptness was now plain to all, and Greiner’s chutzpah was becoming increasingly apparent.

I remember my first introduction to him. I was living and studying in Wollongong at the time, and shortly after his elevation to the leadership the Liberal Party held a conference at the Novotel in Wollongong. That day the Illawarra Mercury had a front-page photo of a fresh-faced young man running along North Wollongong Beach, with a short article about the new opposition leader.

And then I saw him interviewed, at first with door-stop interviews, as the media tried to get his measure. It was immediately obvious that he was something different. He always seemed to have plenty of time to answer the questions that he was asked, and when he was asked about the Wran government he was crisp, to-the-point, and scathing. It became very clear, very quickly, that the Liberals at last had a man that wasn’t intimidated by Neville Wran.

And he quickly grew into the role. A tactic that he employed to great effect was avoiding the practice of gainsaying everything the government did. For too long, back in those days, it was standard practice at all levels for Oppositions to disagree with everything that the government did, almost as though it was expected of them. This is an interesting contrast to today, when weak-kneed Oppositions are generally scared to oppose government policies.

But Greiner was happy to agree with the government if he thought that what they did was good, and equally happy to pillory them if he disagreed with their actions. Thus, he came across as a man of both conviction and courage. He combined this with oratorical skills that most conservative politicians lack. In manner he was smooth, unhurried, and measured, rather like a Kevin Rudd. Rudd, of course, had his faults, but one of them wasn’t his skills as an orator. Would that more conservative politicians put some work into this area.

What happened next spoke volumes. Wran, only two and a half years into his four-year term, called an election. Looking back on it, it is plain why he did this. Wran at last had met someone who not only didn’t fear him, but was going to go for the jugular – the rampant corruption in the NSW Labor Party. The longer Greiner spent in the role, the more he grew in stature, and Wran no doubt felt that he had to win the next election while he could.

The 1984 NSW state election was, in many ways, remarkably similar to the 2021 WA state election. In both cases, a freshly-minted 36-year-old Opposition leader was going up against a much older, popular, well-established Premier.

But the approaches taken by Zak Kirkup (the WA Opposition leader) and Nick Greiner couldn’t have been more different. Kirkup, terrified of being seen to be disagreeing with the Premier on anything, couldn’t wait to Tweet a photo of himself wearing a mask when the mandates came in. And when the election rolled around, there was no mention of the heavy-handed lockdowns and mandates, but rather utter compliance, with no discernible policy difference, except the Liberals positioned themselves to the left of the Greens (Net Zero by 2030). And then, of course, Kirkup rather famously conceded defeat not on election night, but two weeks prior.

Greiner, on the other hand, although he almost certainly knew that he couldn’t win, set about taking serious bark off the Labor Party, to set them up for the next election. He was relentless, fearless, and eloquent as he went after the Wran Government for the rampant corruption that anyone with two eyes and half a brain could see.

The result was a 7 per cent swing to the Coalition that halved their majority, and Wran, just like the ancient Babylonian king Belshazzar, could see the writing on the wall. If Greiner could do this much damage after only a year as Opposition leader, what could he do after a few years? Wran retired in 1986, handing over the reins to the insubstantial, mumbling, cardigan-wearing Barrie Unsworth, and he was no match for Greiner at the 1988 election, where he was swept to power.

So the lesson for the Liberals is this – strength of character is politically attractive. It is impossible not to admire someone that stands for their convictions, even if you disagree with those convictions.

In this context, one of the politicians that I most admire is Paul Keating. That isn’t because I either like the man or his policies, but simply because he stood by his convictions. He never resorted to naked populism (unlike Scott Morrison – an avowed Rugby League fan who turned up at a western derby in Perth, amongst other populist stunts). Rather, he stood by his principles, and woe betides any journalist that took him on – he’d just go in harder.

In the same category we find Margaret Thatcher. It is no coincidence that the most successful post-war Prime Minister was also the most unashamedly conservative. In recent weeks we have seen the unashamedly conservative Ron DeSantis turn a swing state into a red state.

We even see this in the Bible. Jesus’ mortal enemies were the Pharisees, and yet even they could not help but compliment him for his strength of character: ‘Teacher, we know that you speak and teach what is right and are not influenced by what others think. You teach the way of God truthfully. Should we pay taxes to Caesar?’

So where will the Victorian Liberals find their Nick Greiner? Jeff Kennett perhaps? He recently said that he regretted not running at this election. Could he become de facto opposition leader from outside parliament, like Campbell Newman did?

Who knows? But one thing is clear – many years ago the Israelites wandered for forty years in the Sinai desert after their exodus from Egypt. if the Liberals don’t learn from history, if they elect another Matthew Guy or Zak Kirkup as their next leader, they will make this seem like a walk in the park.