Rishi Sunak’s latest promises on asylum and immigration suggest the PM has learned very little from his Tory forebears. Ken Clarke used to compare eurosceptic right-wing Tories to crocodiles circling the prime ministerial boat. Most Tory leaders chose to feed the crocodiles buns to keep them happy. But what happens when you run out of buns? David Cameron knows the answer to that one.

Sunak is also offering buns. But when the buns run out – or simply don’t appear – his problems will only grow.

The PM is vowing to crack down on illegal Channel crossings. He promises to clear the backlog of asylum cases. He promises to reject more claims from Albanians. He promises new laws to ‘make unambiguously clear that if you enter the UK illegally, you should not be able to remain here’.

Here’s a wager: it won’t work. The boats will keep coming

Here’s a wager: it won’t work. The boats will keep coming. And the voters who worry about that will see yet another politician making promises on migration. Promises that tell them they’re right to be worried don’t actually answer their concerns.

Put yourself in the mind of one of the several hundred people who have crossed the Channel on small boats in recent weeks. You’ve paid out a large sum of money to bad people to sail across very cold winter waters. You risk drowning to reach British soil. You’ve done so despite countless promises by British politicians to deter you. Remember Rwanda? Or the legislation that already makes it illegal to arrive in the U.K. without permission?

Will another round of promises from another politician change the incentives and decisions that put people on those small boats?  Of course not.

But migrants aren’t the real audience for those promises. That audience is mostly 2019 Tory voters, and the politicians who claim to speak for them. The PM has seen the polls that suggest Channel crossings and border control is now their No. 2 issue after the cost-of-living crisis. Something Must Be Done, so Sunak is promising Something.

It’s daft and worse than daft. It will make the problem Sunak faces worse. There is a suspicion among some voters that, not only are their country’s borders uncontrolled, but their representatives lack either means or willingness to change that. Sunak’s solution, which he set out in the Commons today, will not address that issue.

The real answers to the Channel crisis – a meaningful deal with France; multilateral reform of refugee laws – remain off the agenda because they’re too complicated and involve too much compromise.

So all Sunak can do is reach into his hamper for another bun. He might get some headlines today, but these promises won’t change the reality on the ground or public opinion. The crocodiles aren’t going away. They’re only getting bigger.

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