Features

How Cameron could make the EU a winning issue (and why he won’t)

No, I don’t really think he’ll campaign for withdrawal. But that doesn’t make Eurosceptics’ options any less clear

25 October 2014

9:00 AM

25 October 2014

9:00 AM

Imagine if David Cameron actually meant it. Imagine if he really did follow through with his implied threat to campaign for Brexit in the absence of better terms from Brussels. You can picture the televised address. An oak-panelled background with a large union flag hanging sedately in the corner, the PM with that furrowed house-captain expression he sometimes does. The script pretty much writes itself.

‘All of you know how hard I tried to secure a new deal. I was often criticised for being too conciliatory, but it was my duty to do whatever was in my power to reform the EU. I have to tell you today that the Brussels institutions are not interested in — are perhaps not capable of — the reforms that I believe the British people want. I am therefore seeking a different relationship with the EU, one based on free trade rather than political union.

‘We remain committed to the free circulation of goods, services and capital in Europe. Like Switzerland, we shall continue to participate fully in the European market. But we shall now be free to sign bilateral trade accords with faster-growing nations on more distant continents. We shall control our domestic affairs: taxation, employment law, social policy, defence, farming, fishing, immigration. And our statutes will, for the first time since 1972, have primacy on our territory.

‘It will be for the British people to decide whether to remain in the EU or whether to pursue this global vision. I intend, if re-elected in May, to campaign in a referendum for independence, to negotiate an amicable separation from the EU, and to recover the maritime and mercantile vocation that our fathers took for granted.’

A landslide election victory would surely follow. If even so moderate a politician as David Cameron felt that EU membership could no longer be tolerated, the country would rally to his cause.


Almost no one expects it to happen, though. Voters know that words are cheap (although whoever made that observation had evidently not sat through a debate in the European Parliament). They no longer take things on trust from any politician, and my party has a particular problem with the EU. Since the mid-1990s, our rhetoric has been increasingly Eurosceptic, but we have gone along with a more and more centralised EU.

People aren’t impressed by the PM being rude about José Manuel Barroso when, at the same time, they see him ordering his MPs to vote to opt back into the illiberal European arrest warrant. They aren’t impressed by his loud disapproval of Jean-Claude Juncker when they see him telling his MEPs to vote for Juncker and his Commission.

One of the Tory leader’s virtues — an unusual one in politics — is that when he has to change his position, he does so without a hint of sulkiness. The Commons vote on bombing Syria was an example; the vetoing of the Fiscal Union Treaty in 2011 another. The phrase ‘making a virtue of necessity’ might have been written for David Cameron.

Which is why it is theoretically conceivable that, if he got nothing from the EU, he might pivot, sweep the country and lead Britain to a prosperous global future.

But I have to be realistic: he has set the renegotiation bar so low as to be able to claim victory in almost any circumstances. If he really has a contingency plan that involves seeking a free-trade-only deal with the EU, he’s the best poker player in the world.

Once you’re set on EU membership, you become good at rationalising every setback — even something as brutal as 26 of the other 27 members backing Juncker. Four months later, you’re backing him yourself.

The choice at the election, if you’re a Eurosceptic, is clear enough. You can have a pro-EU leader who will nonetheless give you an in/out referendum (David Cameron), an anti-EU leader who can’t deliver one (Nigel Farage) or a pro-EU leader who doesn’t even pretend to want one (Ed Miliband). I trust the electorate, and am more bullish than most about winning a referendum on withdrawal even against the three party leaders.

Still, what an opportunity looks like sliding past. The latest poll shows the Conservatives and Ukip taking 50 per cent of the vote between them, while Ed Miliband becomes prime minister with 34 per cent. It’s enough to make you weep.

Daniel Hannan is a Conservative MEP.

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Show comments
  • miranda

    “Why David Cameron is still the only man who could get us out of the EU”
    What a man can do and what a man will do, are often different things.

    “The latest poll shows the Conservatives and Ukip taking 50 per cent of the vote between them”
    I suspect that if there were an alliance between these two parties, then UKIP would lose a lot of its appeal

  • Chris Quin

    Things may get worse, before they get better. We will win in the end Dan.

    Vote UKIP

    • exactly: UKIP doesn’t want a referendum, because they’d lose it and then what would be the point of Nigel Farage. UKIP don’t want the Tories to win in 2015, they want a labour government! So we’ll get Ed taking us back to the 1970s. And then, in the great kipper narrative, what exactly happens? Ah that’s right, everybody comes to their senses and votes for kipperdom. Or, on the other hand, perhaps not.

      • Chris Quin

        I have no idea really – we will just have to wait and see. However, after being chained to the corpse that is the EU for another couple of years with only Red Ed for comfort, people may change their minds and start voting UKIP as well. I’ve had enough of the EU and LibLabCon already.

      • global city

        Blah, blah, blahblahblah!

      • Xaider

        What a load of nonsense – people make up such tripe that I have to laugh.

        I’ll be voting and donating to UKIP (again) nevertheless.

      • DaHitman

        Voting UKIP is the referendum you Lib-Lab-Con loving fascist.

        Please just stick to the Guardian, we’re sick of you lot

        • that’s a great line: voting UKIP is the referendum (you Lib-Lab-Con loving fascist)

          i’ll use that!

          good luck with the referendum DaHitman, i think you’re gonna lose it right!

          • DaHitman

            The EU can pay you to troll here everyday but as you’ve seen more and more people are supporting UKIP so keep up the good work, TROLL

          • yes, great stuff DaHitman! you keep up the abuse, that’ll get you to a 50.1% majority!

          • DaHitman

            LOL it’s you Lib-Lab-Con/EU who give abuse and I thank you because without all the abuse we wouldn’t be getting all the support.

            6 months ago you were saying we wouldn’t get an MP and we’ll soon have two and estimates of 120 next year……………you were beaten in the 30s and you’ll be beaten again you socialist troll

          • i never said anything about whether “you” would get an MP. somebody might have said that, but we’re not all one person out here DaHitman. is “socialist troll” abuse? i think it is you know. and it is to me, you won’ find anybody less socialist than me. but if you want socialism, vote for ukip, and you’ll get ed balls – he really is a socialist you know.

          • DaHitman

            When are your bosses going to realise that paying gimps like you to attack UKIP 24/7 is backfiring because its blatant to everyone what you are.

            When we leave the EU you are going to be on the dole, pal

    • Will

      Then UKIP win and things get REALLY worse.

    • balance_and_reason

      I would vote UKIP, but you have gone all EDL on us….I really can’t vote for an outfit that could lead direct to the kind of governance that rule by corporals delivers.

  • Rik

    The problem is Daniel that none of us ex conservatives voters trust “cast iron Dave” an inch,he has become the epitome of the deceitful lying politicians.His futile attempts to cloak himself in anti EU/Immigration policies blew up in his face revealing once again he will simply lie for votes

    • So you admit to not trusting DC, but cast your vote in a manner that will ensure Comrade Ed in Number 10.
      Marvellous.
      Good result eh?

      • Earthenware

        With Ed you know what you’re going to get, albeit socialism.

        With Dave, he says he’s conservative but who knows what you’ll get? Last time it was gay marriage.

        I wonder what delights he has up his sleeve if he gets elected again?

        • I’ll take gay marriage over socialism ANY time!
          What’s your gripe against equal opportunity for gay people?

          • Earthenware

            It was never in the 2010 manifesto, nor was there any mention of it before the election. It’s certainly not a socially conservative policy.

            The point being, Cameron misled everyone that he was a conservative and then introduced socially-liberal legislation which he was not elected to do.

          • I would respectfully suggest that there has never been a single government anywhere on the planet that has had to legislate out with the planned programme.
            At least DC hasn’t started any illegal wars!
            What IS it with you and gays – you sound like you may be prejudiced!

          • warmingmyth

            “At least DC hasn’t started any illegal wars!”
            Libya? Syria? Ukraine? —- or do you believe everything that the MSM tells you?

          • Oh dear.

          • greggf

            How is gay marriage “equal opportunity for gay people” Whiz?

          • I would have thought that fairly obvious, perhaps a bigot cannot perceive what stares him in the face!

          • greggf

            Why so sure of yourself Whiz?
            Mother nature is not so generous about your sloganising, for example; my marriage is not a gay marriage and certain relatives are denied any kind of marriage. Labeling biology as prejudiced maybe fashionable but is hardly intelligent.

  • beenzrgud

    Is this the same piece being repeated or have all the comments simply been removed?

    • Aberrant_Apostrophe

      Both. But then, given the article is dated the 25th of October, I would think it’s going to be repeated again in the future.

  • gerronwithit

    The three consequences envisaged by Dan, the only hope (Conservative), the UKIP vote or the Labour waste of space is not what is envisaged any longer by the electorate. We will not survive as a nation if we continue to steer in the EU direction mandated by Conservatives and Labour, no matter what the politicians may say, and many of us are even prepared to go through a scorched earth Labour administration to geT the absolute pain over and done with as soon as possible.

  • John Carins

    Cameron is pro EU. He is employing delaying tactics, waiting for France and Italy’s economies to worsen and for them to join the chorus of EU reform. Waiting for the Spanish to go apoplectic over the Catalonia issue etc. Only then will the EU start to take the issue of reform seriously. Cameron will claim to have been in the reform vanguard. As usual, Cameron has abrogated responsibility for our own nation – it’s fate will be decided by others. Time to get off this sinking ship.

  • neverbefrench

    I am afraid we may not just be looking at a 5 year Labour government but at least 10 to 15 years as Labours client state keeps them in and accepts the bribes made with borrowed money. UKIP’s idea that one more Labour term will bring the country to its senses is pie in the sky. We will end up like Argentina if we are not careful.

    • John Croston

      Argentina actually looks good when you look at what we are really heading towards becoming – Pakistan.

    • i agree nbf. i don’t even think ukip believe it, but they need to tell that story about 1 labour term before things get better, else they have to agree that a vote for ukip is simply a vote for socialist ed.

      • scottspeig

        Except, I vote for UKIP as I see that the Conservative party are almost as inept as Labour (and certainly not conservative)! With UKIP, it seems there are compromises to be had which are forthcoming (no flat tax, NHS) which puts it off a little, but still far better than Tory nonsense. And for the record, while unlikely, it is possible for UKIP to win the next election. Just requires somewhere in the region of 14m voters to agree to it!!

  • FlippityGibbit

    I’m a simple kind of cove and see things in simple terms. I’ve switched from always voting Lib Dem to UKIP and as an immigrant myself I’m not racist or anti-immigration. I vote UKIP for British Sovereignty and UKIP is the only Party who offers that. I, and many I talk to do trust ANY of the 3 leaders or their party manifesto promises but everyone not only trusts Mr Farage but KNOW he WILL take us out of the EU.
    Besides not having the trust of the electorate the Politicians are faced with another HUGE obstacle. The Politicians are not listening and certainly not hearing the people but UKIP is offering to put Westminster back in Control whilst Juncker and Barroso demonstrate perfectly They tell our ELECTED Politicians what they can and can’t do without anyone voting for them! It can ONLY be UKIP if you truly believe in democracy!

    • how will UKIP give you “British Sovereignty”?

      • FlippityGibbit

        Simply by leaving the EU and having a British Parliament Of ELECTED MP’s making British Laws for the British people in the interests of the British people. Not a rubber stamp office for EU Legislation that it has become as so amply demonstrated by Borroso and Joncker (both UNELECTED) dictating to an ELECTED PM and Parliament exactly what they can or can’t do for the electorate that Voted for them!
        We do not want re-negotiations or “caps” we want OUT and Rochester will show you just how much!

        • right, so if you and your pals feel very strongly about something, it happens, even if you only win like 20% of the vote? or, perhaps, on the other hand, it won’t happen and you’ll drive the country to the left via ed miliband. but you’ll still feel very strongly, and your sticker will say “vote ukip, get ukip”, but in fact, we’ll get ed. even, as i say, if you feel really really strongly with lots of capital letters and abuse!

          • FlippityGibbit

            No, because I know from canvassing in Labour areas that Labour Voters are switching to UKIP in increasing numbers because their own party has deserted them and is chasing the small “c” Conservatives. Vote UKIP and you’ll get UKIP, remember we are in no hurry and the Pro-EU Lobby must win EVERY time just to stay In the EU, we only have to win ONCE to leave. This IS the Struggle for the British Right to Self Determination and we will win because we are not going away and are still growing!

          • Major Plonquer

            You still don’t get it, do you? So what if we get Ed Ball and Ed Miliband? There is zero difference between getting them and getting Cameron and crew. Zero.

          • FlippityGibbit

            Took the words out of my mouth! The trouble is they can’t afford to “get it” because their case is so untenable! So they chose not to hear.

      • DaHitman

        By giving us our country back and you paid EU PR trolls can then FO

      • Village idiot

        What a stupid question !

        • isn’t it! great point Idiot!

        • Pip

          Their arrogance will be their downfall, Pro EU/Left Wing activists who troll these sites merely serve to increase the Anti EU sentiment and support for UKIP.

      • If there is one thing that will prevent me from voting UKIP it is the fact that I believe to so do will usher Comrade Ed into Number 10.
        If there is a second thing, it’s the attitude of the Kippers who infer that they know very well that will happen, and then say they don’t care.
        They don’t CARE even though they tacitly admit that their Party will produce a result diametrically opposite to the ideals they purport to stand for.
        Insanity.

        • John Carins

          The Conservatives and Labour parties are already in the asylum. It was after all the Conservatives that took us into and deeper into this EU project. Now that is sheer insanity.

        • exactly

  • davebush999

    Mr Hannan, if you had any integrity you would join UKIP along with your friends Carswell and Reckless. Otherwise you will always be regarded as someone who is all fur coat and no knickers.

    • Some Bloke

      Fur coat and knickers it is then…… Hannan is useless!

  • Jean-Claude I, by the Grace of God, Emperor
    of the Holy European Empire, to his vassal, David the Dodgy of the Fiefdom of
    Britannia:

    Kneel and listen: Divest thyself instantly
    of the delusion that We are not thy boss.
    We are. And thou mayest not do
    anything without Our imperial consent.

    The opinions of thy serfs are irrelevant.
    They must house and feed all refugees from our financial cleansing projects,
    the euro and liberation of the heathens in the east. Thou hast no say in the matter. Thou mayest now kiss my boot.

  • greggf

    “The latest poll shows the Conservatives and Ukip taking 50 per cent of the vote between them, while Ed Miliband becomes prime minister with 34 per cent.”

    That eventuality if manifested in seats will settle the fate of David Cameron.

  • Howard

    Labour will nevertheless dangle the socialist carrot and the majority of this country will eat it up like the horses they’ve become. There just aren’t enough clever people anymore.

  • BigCheddar

    Very good piece Dan, Thank you. Do you not think, though, that the tories & UKIP will do a deal once the ballot boxes are closed? Even if that costs Cameron his job?

  • Diggery Whiggery

    “One of the Tory leader’s virtues — an unusual one in politics — is that when he has to change his position, he does so without a hint of sulkiness.”

    Of course, because he has no principles. It’s easy to change position when you don’t believe in any of them.

    Dan, seriously, what are you doing in that party? I’m not saying you should join UKIP, as you clearly don’t want to and that’s fine, but why stay in the Tory party? No matter what happens to DC, the Tory party will not have a eurosceptic leader, ever, so you’re going to spend the whole of your political career in a party that doesn’t agree with you.

    For the Tory party to change Dan, it has to be confronted by its own potential destruction.

    • and what will take for you to change dw?

      • Diggery Whiggery

        I’m open minded, what are you offering?

      • scottspeig

        A leadership cull and a group of non-PPE graduates to lead the party with Tebbit style policies. Until then, I’ll stick to UKIP or the closest to that.

  • Diggery Whiggery

    To all those peddling the desperate “Ukip want Labour to win” line to take, think on.

    If that were the case, Ukip would not be going after Old Labour voters in the north and would be backing off in Wales. Lynton Crosby’s 13th narrative since May 2013 no more squares with reality than the other 12 that he’s since had to dump.

    Try thinking for yourselves.

  • English Aborigine

    The eu mafia have turned up at the door demanding money with menaces

    Big boss Barroso and Don ‘ The Don ‘ Tusk

    Hey Davey n Georgey how ya doin boys. Pretty good huh by all accounts

    Not ours though, geddit ha ha

    You guys included drugs and prostitution in ya GDP figures which is serious dough and we need to have some of da action.

    Ya got 5 weeks to hand over 1.7 billion or tings burn

    Don’t make me send round Schulz an Junkers they’re bad news

    Understand me

    Good

  • Peter Stroud

    If our dear PM doesn’t get the hint that the EU rewards success with penalties, after its demand for £1.7 Bn, he never will. Now is the time to say no – we will not pay, enough is enough. Now is the time for him to admit that the EU is a basket case that can only decay completely: unless there are far reaching changes. Changes that the federalists will never entertain. Yes, time for him to listen to his Eurosceptic MPs and negotiate withdrawal.

  • davidofkent

    Cameron was full of indignation today over the demand with menaces from the EU. Please note that he said “I will not pay by 1 December”. He did not say “I will not pay”. Thus we can expect the usual dissembling with Cameron pretending to be tough with the EU but merely getting an agreement to stage the extra payment. Cameron is, of course, really worried by the EU now. He can see the Conservatives getting a real whipping next May 2015 because he is responsible for the nonsense that we indigenous British people have to put up with from the EU, especially France. Giving France a rebate when they have done all the wrong things this past five years is an insult.

  • Some Bloke

    Oh look, it’s Hannan again…. the useless one!

  • DaHitman

    Daniel, you’re a Lib-Lab-Con loving moron………….your fascist friend promised us a referendum back in 2009 but once elected went back on his promise, we wont fall for it again

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sQ2n7oMcSi0

  • sayajp

    Mr Hannan, you are an oily fantasist. You live a fantastic life, all expenses and school fees paid, pretending to dislike the EU but are wedded to the party where two thirds of the MPs are absolutely committed and beholden to the EU…who will work tirelessly – and lie daily – to make sure Britain stays in. If you had ANY integrity, you would have quit the Tory party long ago. You sound more like the devious, repellent Matthew Parris everyday.

  • pobinr

    Looks to me more like the earthquake caused by Farage & UKIP is what’s going to get us out of the EU. He will probably hold the balance of power in 2015 & he is the only one we can trust to deliver rather than slippery cast iron Dave
    Cameron deception & lies > https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bHyY0Z6jpCI

    Ref the £1.7bn demand by the EU.
    This is a chance for Cameron to make a condition of payment that the last 19 years of EU accounts be fully audited & signed off before he pays, which would lead to a very long wait indeed, but he wouldn’t have the balls for that of course.

    Incidentally the EU commision are saying it would be illegal not to pay this £1.7bn.
    Yet if they were directors of a company, they’d be in prison for not having had the accounts signed off!

    See this 24 mins in > https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bJHETdxwv8Y

  • Malus Pudor

    Hannan…. who takes Juncker’s Luxembourg shilling while feigning indignation…

    You are one seriously humongous hypocrite !

  • Richard N

    Cameron doesn’t mean anything he says – let alone what he promises. He just blurts out whatever ‘promise’ he thinks will buy him some votes, without the slightest intention of keeping any of them. “Just get me past the election” is all he thinks about. Then he can bin any inconvenient promises, just as he did with his ‘cast-iron guarantee’ once he got to be PM.

    Saying that Cameron will give an EU referendum is silly – for all the reasons everyone knows. But apart from those, even if he did get reelected and we had an EU referendum, the entire liblabcon establishment, plus virtually the entire UK media, plus endless bloodcurdling threats from the EU, would virtually guarantee a ‘stay in’ vote. And if not, Cameron and the EU would just say we’d have to vote again, until we got it right – as they have every time any country has voted against the EU.

  • Richard N

    How Hannan has got the nerve to STILL pretend to be a eurosceptic, when he’s STILL in the Tory EU puppet party – the party which has sold this country out to the EU for the last 40 years, while all the time pretending to be eurosceptic – just defeats me.

    • EricHobsbawmtwit

      Where do social liberals who want to leave the EU go? UKIP is the party of Lt Colonel Blaster-Sump.

  • Rush_is_Right

    “The latest poll shows the Conservatives and Ukip taking 50 per cent of the vote between them,”

    True. But remember that last week Southampton and Sunderland shared 8 goals between them too, and there WAS a winner. I think that there’s a good chance UKIP will out-poll the faux-Conservatives next May.

    • EricHobsbawmtwit

      I think there’s precisely zero chance of UKIP out polling the Tories next May. My guess is that UKIP will get 8-9%, not all of it from the Tories. The Tories will get 39-41% and Labour will sink to 26-27%.

  • balance_and_reason

    But but but….is it really possible to do that….to stay in the trading block but leave all the rest out? WHY has nobody thought of this before?

  • paulus

    You cant just add up two figures and arrive at 50% of the electorate, for a majority. For a start 50% is not a majority, and there is a whole host of variables in the figures you cite, that qualify any projections. For a start the 15% of UKIP voters who vote out may come exclusively from the 35% conservative vote you cite. If the figures dont add up in the first place the whole project will be doomed.

    Secondly every argument used in the No campaign will be ruthlessly used by the Europhiles, they will even be wheeling out the CAP as a good thing with commodity price volatility and reliability of supply, all compelling arguments when people are unsure or not truely informed.

    Who is going to lead the out campaign ? your mate Carswell thought his efforts would be better spent joining a party that was already committed to leaving the E.U. Was he anticipating a split between in or outers in UKIP and decided to put his muscle behind the outers.

    We can discount UKIP and the Libs as their votes can be taken as a given, the heat of the battle is not going to be there. It will be fought at its most ferocious in the ranks of the conservative and Labour party. That is where the destiny of this nation will be won or lost.

    If you wanted to derail an argument, you would create a movement of headbangers to support it, we can’t allow them to derail our one and only chance.

  • Proud-Greek-citizen

    It is a good idea for Britain to get off EU. To see what happens.

  • Major Plonquer

    It’s Cameron’s (and many in his party’s) competence that’s really the point. He’s a PR “expert” who couldn’t PR a fart at a Korean kimchee banquet. Farage and his group aren’t much better, to be honest, but voting for them gives us a chance to shake up the system and perhaps move the shape of politics forward into the Internet age.

  • pat kelly

    Cameron is a slimy weasel of a man who disgusted people like myself with his derogatory comments that he made about UKIP supporters. ” swivel eyed loons ” etc.

    Then there was his embarrassing ” hug a hoody ” statement, that was after his ” hug a husky ” photo opp. He is a disgusting example of modern politics and completely lacks any conviction or credibility.

    From a real conservative who had to find a home at UKIP, up yours Dave.

    • EricHobsbawmtwit

      You know the Tory party had a bit of a reputation for being “the nasty party”, don’t you?

      I suppose UKIP are now in that role.

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    «´ Thanks to Dr Brave ¨`»

    ..(¸. •’´(¸.•’´ * `’•.¸)`’•.¸ )..

  • Jean de Valette

    I note with amusement that the headline has now been changed from
    “How David Cameron Could Make The EU A Winning Issue (But Won’t)”
    to the CCHQ-approved (or indeed, suggested?)
    “Cameron is the only one who will get us out blah blah blah”

    Vote UKIP.

  • edlancey

    Quite why you’ve employed this twerp is beyond me. His plastic euroscepticism is exactly why I stopped reading the Telegraph.

  • Bill Sticker

    Cameron is as likely to do the above as the pope is about to turn muslim. The stark truth is he is merely a puppet of his Brussels masters. He is their figure head giving the rest of us the fond illusion that what is sitting in Downing street is our sovereign elected government. Its just a sorry illusion as he is in reality just the EUs rubber stamping puppet there to slavishly follow whatever dictat they present him with.

    Naughty naughty Dave you cannot stop the SWAMPING of your towns and cities by our fellow benefits seeking citizens that would be ILLEGAL

    WHAT WILL CHAIRMAN MAO BAROSSO DO SEND A SQUADCAR FULL OF GENDARMES TO CART DAVE OFF TO THE HAGUE IF HE DEFIES HIM?. IT MIGHT EVEN CHANGE HIS OUTLOOK ON ARREST WARRANTS

    We demand £1,7 Billion seeing that your prostitution drugs dealing and racketeering is doing so well so we can bail our ailing economies like the GERMANS.

    PS Were using the same bean counters who refused to sign off our EU budgets for the past 25 years because of all the rampant fraud but its all good now!

    Thats the kind of stuff freshers dream up when there having a drunken party not serious politics but its not funny its real very real!

    PEOPLE DEMAND YOUR REFERENDUM TOMORROW AND VOTE UKIP!!

  • the realist

    Dave you look like a bulldog chewing a wasp

  • Dr Alex

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