One of the key differentiating points between outgoing Victorian premier, Jacinta Allan, and newbie, Ben Carroll, was their preparedness to bring on a royal commission on the state’s construction industry.

Jacinta had begun to act like a frustrated teenager who was having difficulty getting her way. Each day, she would reel off excuses about why it wouldn’t be a good idea to call a royal commission. It would be too slow, it would be too expensive, there would be nothing to see.

Gosh, the Plumbing Industry Climate Action Centre – just typing those words gives me a laugh – had commissioned an economist and a retired academic to demonstrate that the blow-out in construction costs in the state was all about inflation. It had nothing to do with corruption on the Big Build, you must understand.

But as time passed, she sounded more shrill and less convincing. Did she have something to hide? After all, she had been the infrastructure minister responsible for the Big Build, prior to her getting the top job.

While the Kmart kid (Ben Carroll) has thrown his weight behind a royal commission on the state’s construction industry, he is dragging his feet in terms of announcing the terms of reference and the commissioner. In all likelihood, the appointee will be from another state, probably a retired judge. It’s not the most popular gig around and he may be finding it hard to get a willing participant.

You only have to observe what has been happening to Geoffrey Watson SC, who authored a report into the Queensland branch of the Construction, Forestry and Maritime Union, to understand this point. His car has been firebombed, he has been followed by thugs, his family has been threatened – most of us could do without this type of ‘fun’.

Once upon a time, royal commissions were used sparingly by the federal and state governments. They tended to cover areas that were assumed to be rife with corruption but were inadequately policed. The powers to compel witnesses and obtain difficult-to-get evidence are two key features. In many instances, we would expect criminal charges to follow from the findings.

By contrast, royal commissions are not an effective or efficient way just to find things out. They are slow and expensive and there are other means of obtaining information. Two recent royal commissions on disability and veteran suicide spring to mind. Even the one on Robodebt was a waste of time, with no convictions resulting from the final report.

Royal commissions have also developed a distinctive political flavour in recent times.  The one on the financial services sector was essentially foisted on the federal Coalition government – then opposition leader, Bill Shorten, was simply being pushy – even though it was unclear what the outcomes would be.

Sure, we found out about some egregious stuff like dead people being charged fees. And there were some fun ‘gotcha’ moments such as former Treasury secretary, Ken Henry, being humiliated as a witness. But because the terms of reference related to misconduct, and not conduct, in the sector, we never found out how prevalent these unacceptable practices were.

The end-result was a major overreaction – for example, mandated responsible lending anyone? The overregulation (and associated) costs to consumers of financial services are still being unpicked, and not completely.  Just look at the cost of obtaining expert personal financial advice if you want one clear example.

And even though industry superannuation was part of the brief of this royal commission, the commissioner decided largely to ignore the sub-sector. This was not the intention of the government, but it illustrates the scope for a commissioner to interpret the terms of reference with a degree of flexibility and to impose personal preferences.  (See also the current Royal Commission into Antisemitism and Social Cohesion.)

Another example of a largely failed royal commission was brought on by Prime Minister Tony Abbott and related to trade union conduct. So much time was wasted on the behaviour of the Australian Workers’ Union – Bill Shorten’s home away from home – that the main game was basically ignored. By the way, the AWU is one of the better trade unions, a pussy-cat compared with many of the others.

There were some short-lived regulatory reforms because of the commission, but in the meantime the power of the CFMEU was growing and spreading across the states. The conditions that led to this unfortunate development were largely ignored.

So, let’s get back to the forthcoming royal commission into the Victorian construction industry to be announced by the Kmart kid. It will be very important to parse the terms of reference carefully and to scrutinise the commissioner appointed to head up the inquiry.

There is a clear need for the focus to be placed on the Big Build, the $109-billion government infrastructure program which covers the massively expensive Metro Tunnel, the West Gate Tunnel and the North-East Link projects.

Sadly, some of the level crossing removal projects will also need to be considered given that some involved open warfare between bikie gangs vying for overpaid jobs. The first stages of the ludicrous Suburban Rail Loop should also be included.

By the same token, we are not interested in home renovations undertaken in the middle suburbs or the construction of new homes in the outer suburbs.

For this royal commission to succeed, it needs four key ingredients: legal expertise, forensic accounting (follow-the-money), police and communications. A key challenge is to get witnesses who know valuable information to come clean. The ‘I don’t recall’ responses are not helpful. (See also the recent Fauci example.) Senior people, both current and past, from key government agencies will need to be called.

The Victorian police regularly make the claim that enforcing the law in the construction industry is frustrated by the unwillingness of frightened witnesses to make statements. This is undoubtedly the case. The royal commission needs to overcome this obstacle and the team that makes up the royal commission staff will be important in that respect.

Is there a possibility that Carroll will bring on a Clayton’s royal commission – the one you have when you are not having one? Yes, that could be the case but were Jess Wilson to win the forthcoming election and become the next premier, there is some scope to change things about. The terms of reference can be adjusted, and the length of the inquiry can be extended. In an extreme circumstance, the commissioner could be stood down and another one appointed.

We are probably looking at $200 million minimum to run the royal commission. But if the end-result is a construction/civil engineering sector that is free of corruption and operates at maximum efficiency, it will be money well-spent.

There are examples overseas – New York, for instance, where massive change occurred, although the context of the anti-racketeering laws did help.

Bring it on, I say. It’s so bad in Victoria that there is only way from here – up.