At 2 a.m. on Saturday, President Trump gave a New Year’s kinetic expression to his recently published National Security Strategy and what it means in the American hemisphere. If we take President Trump at his blustering word – which those in the administration’s Maduro-adjacent crosshairs should – this is just the first, big, shock-and-awe move by the United States in a resetting of the rules-based order that has governed our hemisphere. This time on America First terms.
In Europe, those who take Trump seriously and see the long-term upside in his policies, call him “Daddy.” Last weekend Trump showed the “Papi” side of this national security strategy in our hemisphere. The Venezuelan people woke up praising the Papi of Venezuelan freedom. There is a new sheriff overseeing the hemisphere – and there are going to be regional and global consequences.
China is going to have to tighten its belt and stop building roads and propping up adversaries in our hemisphere. Cuba, too, should be very worried. What happened in Venezuela was not a product of a Bay of Pigs military mindset. Like Venezuela, Cuba is surrounded by the US Navy. Cuba’s infrastructure was shot before the hurricanes hit. The country looks like North Korea at night – and its people spend their days in a Hunger Games-pursuit. Without Venezuelan oil and other needed subsidies, Cuba will find itself completely dark in a matter of weeks. And their best fighters are stuck in Venezuela. Going home is not an option; escaping to Columbia and joining the Narcos is the likelier move. Soon enough, the Cuban regime with collapse under its own weight, followed by a Cuban Diaspora returning home, welcomed as liberators.
The narco-industrial complex needs to show that they are listening to Papi Gringo and adapting to new market conditions. Discontinuing the fentanyl trade and hanging its leadership from bridges would be a constructive first act of “We hear you, Papi.” Taking this step would help the cartels protect their core business, which has not always been poisoning Americans.
To date, President Trump has been a model of kinetic restraint and has studiously avoided the excesses of regime change and nation-building overreach.
Trump blew the minds of the neocons and their America First critics in Iran. He showed the world, in Operation Midnight Hammer, a middle path. Trump is doing so again in Venezuela with Operation Absolute Resolve. Under Trump’s leadership and direction, his administration scrupulously planned and executed a multi-agency kinetic response with minimal casualties to the regime’s key players – none to populace – resulting in a tomorrow that favors peace, and an orderly transition to better. When have we seen that before?
Tucker Carlson – with whom I disagree, but whom I refuse to quit, cancel, or stop listening to – is a not-so-stable genius when it comes to foreign policy and conduct of war. In contrast, Carlson has much to offer on how “We the People” think about our nation’s obligations to each other, citizen to citizen, which includes our elected representative. Domestic policy is the constructive lane for Tucker’s flavor of America First Quakerism.
But foreign policy is not Tucker Carlson’s strong point. Nor, frankly, is it a strong point of his foil and former colleague Mark Levin, who Carlson often depicts as a totem of neoconservatism. However, it is a strength of President Trump, and it is being faithfully executed by his Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, and Secretary of War, Pete Hegseth. It is worth noting that his two war captains both have neocon resumes and let’s-give-war-a-chance tendencies, a cause of concern for the America First crowd. It does appear, however, that they have evolved to embrace a third way – Trump’s way – between the excesses of neoconservatism and the deficits of America First Quakerism.
Tucker and Levin are both prisoners of mindsets that necessarily lead to failure. In contrast, Trump’s approach to peace and war defies the worst features of each, and in doing so delivers on the partial in both within a win-win outcome. Iran’s nuclear ambitions got crushed without American boots on the ground, regime change and suffering of non-combatant, and combatants and leadership.
Just because Trump’s actions in Iran, and now in Venezuela, make Senator Lindsay Graham giddy, doesn’t mean that Trump’s foreign policy instincts have been captured. As in Iran, what is happening in Venezuela is not regime change; it is regime influence through leverage. This difference between the former and latter is a distinction with a huge, game-changing difference.
Here’s a tactical expression of the American strategy: Trump does not punish the innocents – men, women, or children – or all the guilty for that matter. That is America First, restraint born of prudence. Trump hits targets – Iran’s nuclear enrichment and weaponization capacity – and cocksure leadership who don’t know the comparative size of their stick: Maduro. And when Trump does act, he does so with a precision and measure born of patient, disciplined planning and rehearsal, and with open communication to those on the ground, counseling calm, and, if not, a reality of more coming. Trump offered Maduro an off-ramp that did not require a jail cell. He could be living the al-Assad life somewhere that fits his despotic liking. He did not take it, however, and woke up in a very different position. Trump offered his second-in-command, Delcy Rodríguez – his ruthless Lady Macbeth – a second chance and new lease of life, a receivership relationship for her and her dirty-hand cronies.
This is not regime change. This is regime influence. On the same day of the extraction, the Venezuelan leadership that was spared was offered a peace-and-reconciliation olive branch. He has extended that opportunity to those already charged as co-conspirators to become collaborators in building a better Venezuela on terms that the US dictates. Foment chaos and expect to be replaced by your number two, who will distinguish themselves as a patriot by killing their boss, assume the title and play nice with Papi.
Just imagine if what we pulled off in Venezuela with Maduro, we did in Iraq with Saddam Hussein. Get him in his palace while he is sleeping and leave his people and leadership alone. And while this is happening, reach out to his second-in-command and make an offer that he or she can’t refuse with wash, rinse and repeat consequences of noncompliance.
This is a genuine Art of War insight. Give the existing leadership an opportunity to survive and evolve into better, or at least enough time to steal enough money and get out of the country. Doing so will take away the incentive to circle around the leader and fight like their fates are locked at the hip with his. Decouple their fates and you compete on a completely different terrain.
How much human suffering could have been avoided if this was our default, first response to bad behavior in Afghanistan and Iraq?
Trump’s National Security Strategy is an evolution of the art of war and statecraft. The “Trump Corollary” to the Monroe Doctrine is an improvement to rally around.
