Even before the Liberal Party found itself in an existential crisis, whispers were circling South Australian Senator Alex Antic and his future.
Will he defect to One Nation?
Will he stick it out with the Liberals…
Then there was that infamous beer with Cory Bernardi, who has since been elected to the Legislative Council.
Statement from Senator Alex Antic regarding events of 23 February 2026.
“On the evening of Monday, 23 February 2026 I met with my friend Cory Bernardi on Rundle Street for the purposes of having a beer.
On that occasion we were photographed while discussing all range of matters…
— Senator Alex Antic (@SenatorAntic) February 24, 2026
It’s difficult to tell what his intentions are, however, the answer probably sits with the preselection process and whether or not the conservatives have the numbers to put Antic at the top of the ticket.
Any move by the moderate faction to regain control and push Antic into a number two or three spot is very risky. If Antic were to defect to One Nation and run at the top of their Senate ticket, he could expect a comfortable victory.
Antic is a man with a young family and a passion for politics. It would be logical for him to pick the sure bet.
This remains academic. As he was re-elected in 2025, Antic has many years ahead of him to ponder that decision and, in my view, is unlikely to make any rash moves. If you say, what about Barnaby Joyce? Consider that Joyce reached the top of his potential career as Deputy Prime Minister. He then spent years gritting his teeth over Net Zero while being shuffled closer to the door.
Joining One Nation was a logical step for Joyce which lifted his profile and gave him back his intellectual freedom. He seems to be enjoying politics again. The Nationals were never going to let him back into the leadership but working with Pauline has given him a Faragian-style pseudo leadership. They might not be head of a government, or even an opposition, but they are leading a movement.
One Nation might be the flavour of the moment right now, however it has yet to prove itself as a permanent force. Even Reform in UK still needs at least one more election prove its point. Antic still has leadership prospects within the Liberal Party and could be expected to wait until after the next federal election to assess his options. If Matt Canavan can come in from the cold to lead the Nationals, Antic could one day do the same for the Liberals.
Remember, in a time of war and strategic chaos, anything is possible.
We have no idea if Labor’s inability to manage critical supply lines will shut the country down or result in some sort of emergency election. Things can go to heck really fast when incompetency is thrown into the leadership scaffolding. Like rotten planks and rusted joints, Labor’s university activism is a poor choice of building material for genuine geopolitical strife. Predicting this political landscape is far more difficult than the last 50 years of relative stability.
As for Antic, while the moderates may squirm at his presence, he aids the Liberal Party. Plenty of Blue Ribbon voters view Antic as a thread of hope that things might improve. The moderates would be very foolish to plot against him when they should be actively courting his favour. Which means they definitely will.
Headlines in the press yesterday about Antic refusing to rule out going to One Nation are sensationalised for clickbait.
His assessment of the South Australian election is more interesting.
Antic pointed out the ‘council-level politics’ that seemed to drive the South Australia election, which was at odds with the national political campaign being run by One Nation. There were two different conversations taking place and no clear winner except that One Nation came second to Labor on primary votes. That can no longer be laughed at or ignored.
‘We had a dismal result, frankly. It wasn’t a surprise. Very much expected … the Liberal Party will not succeed when it continues to offer up Teal-like policies. It will resonate with voters when it returns to being the party of Menzies.’
Antic went on to describe the need to set out a ‘vision of hope’ for people. He followed it with an anecdote of people on the ground in ‘middle Australia’ voting One Nation when ordinarily they’d be Liberal voters. It is almost as if One Nation has become that ‘hope’ Antic speaks of, regardless of whether or not it is true. Sometimes the belief in change is enough to carry a party through. That sort of electoral power is fragile.
‘If this isn’t a wake-up call for the Liberal Party, then I don’t know what is. Either way, this is a national phenomenon.’
He then astutely describes the left-leaning, public-service state of South Australia. For One Nation to gain a foothold under those conditions is … wild.
‘Let me tell you, if this message isn’t picked up by the Liberal Party federally, the vote will tank. The message needs to be heard loud and clear. People are sick of the usual messaging. The vote came in from Labor as well. One Nation took votes from Labor as well as us, but mainly us. This is an existential crisis for the Liberal Party. Let’s not make any bones about it … South Australia is very much the canary in the coal mine for the One Nation experience and the people in Canberra need to listen to this.’
Angus Taylor and Matt Canavan have three choices: ignore One Nation and fix their policies, offer One Nation a position in an official three-way coalition, or they can go to war.
Early indications are that they are choosing war.
This is the riskiest strategy that threatens hardening those drifting voters against the Liberals. It digs them in. It’s like throwing stones at someone to entice them.
Antic pointed out that the Liberals must be true to their values and brave. Threatening voters is not a good option.
In my opinion, the failure of the South Australian Liberals could be summarised in a short exchange between Peter Malinauskas and Ashton Hurn during the pre-election debate.
(Video starts below at the question.)
Hurn tried to pin the Premier on the state Voice, which should have been an easy win given Labor ignored the will of the people. Instead, he pinned her because Hurn did not oppose the Voice and then the Liberals changed their mind when, as the Premier suggested, they became concerned about One Nation. The Premier then pointed out that everyone knows where One Nation stands on these issues, but no one can work out what the Liberals think.
That is the heart of the whole matter. The Liberals don’t know what they think and half of what they think is a reaction to a bad poll.
You cannot build party morality as a knee-jerk reaction to competition on the right. It has to come from within and the voters have to believe that these moral positions will hold steady against pressure from the ABC, Labor, activist shills, and moderate floods.
It’s far too early to tie Antic’s future up in South Australia results.
Although I would recommend keeping an eye on him.
Antic is neither a canary suffocating on its perch nor a rat scampering over the deck. He is closer to guy inspecting the life rafts and glancing at the emergency instructions … just in case.
If he starts walking with purpose, you should probably follow him.
